Early Tuesday Morning Iraq Economic News Highlights 8-22-23

An American Analysis Describes Iraq As "More Like A Country Under International Tutelage"

2023-08-22 Shafaq News/ The "Washington Institute" for Strategic Studies published an analysis of the situation in Iraq and the crises it is going through at the internal and external levels, and the failure of successive federal governments to rule recently and temporarily, describing Iraq as "more like a country under international tutelage." At the same time, he did not rule out the return of the country under the seventh clause.  The analysis stated that the declining political and legal reality in Iraq today indicates that the country is still facing a deep strategic dilemma as a result of the international obligations and restrictions imposed on it.

According to the analysis of the American Institute, "Decades after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, Iraq is still practically under the influence of dozens of UN resolutions and sanctions as a result of the aggression launched by Saddam Hussein against Kuwait.

Despite Iraq's official removal from Chapter VII sanctions of the United Nations Charter in June June 2013, and his commitment to pay final dues that exceeded $50 billion in compensation to Kuwait in February 2022.

However, there are some issues that are still outstanding between the two countries, while Iraq struggles to obtain the description of a "normal country" and to integrate into the international community.

The analysis also stated that, in fact, returning Iraq from describing a "state that resorts to violence" to describing a "normal state" requires complex policies and procedures that take a long time.

Moreover, the problem of Iraq's failure to integrate with the international community is due to the ongoing internal crises. Since 2003, successive governments have plunged the country into complex internal crises of conflicts, terrorism, corruption, chaos and political polarization.

 Instead of returning Iraq to its normal state, these governments have turned into "caretaker governments" and each of them issues crises to the next government.

He pointed out that Iraq "has become in a situation similar to a state under international tutelage. Even today, the state is no longer able to fulfill its obligations under the strategic framework agreement concluded with the United States, its main ally.

Despite the tireless efforts made by the Iraqi government under the prime minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, however, Iraqi officials must realize that there is no real development for Iraq without ensuring its full commitment to the consequences of the decisions of Chapters VII and VI of the United Nations Charter related to Kuwait and other issues.

The analysis touched on a summary of the obstacles that Iraq still faces and the possible steps it can take to maintain its reputation as a stable and responsible country at the international level.

Avoid the violations set forth in Chapter VII

The analysis said that although Iraq was officially removed from Chapter VII sanctions in 2022, it still faces the risk of violating many United Nations resolutions, which in turn could lead to the reactivation of Chapter VII.

In particular, Iraq needs to heed Paragraph 32 of UN Resolution 628 which "requires Iraq to inform the Council of its commitment that it will not commit or support any act of international terrorism or allow any organization to commit such acts within its territory."

The American Institute pointed out that "Iraq has always been willing to host a number of dangerous militias supported by Iran, including groups that the United States has included on the terrorist list such as Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq and Kata'ib Hezbollah.

And with the Shiite coordination framework now in power, the roles of the militias have escalated." These organizations are classified by the United States on terrorist lists to unprecedented levels.

He added, "In fact, the Iraqi Minister of Higher Education, Naim al-Aboudi, is a member of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, and the head of the prime minister's press office, Rabih Nader, has long been associated with both Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq and Kata'ib Hezbollah. The association of these officials with groups classified on terrorist lists will constitute a source of embarrassment for Iraq and impede its return as a normal country.

The analysis also emphasized that "Iraq should work systematically to dismantle armed groups that have taken root within its borders, ensuring that they cannot threaten national or regional security.

In the long term, this initiative will be implemented alongside Iraq's efforts and commitment to support democratic mechanisms." in the political process, and the transfer of power peacefully without resorting to violence, which has become familiar during the past few decades in Iraq.

The analysis considered that "Iraq's success in controlling the status of those militias and combating those groups classified on terrorist lists would help it gain the confidence of the international community and would distance it from possible violations of Chapter VII. This may also lead to the termination of the work of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI)." ".

Iraq's fulfillment of its obligations under Chapter VI

The analysis issued by the "Washington Institute" dealt with the issue of Iraq's commitment to Chapter Six, and said: There is a need to resolve Iraq's disputes with Kuwait peacefully in three files, which are the file of the missing Kuwaitis, the file of the missing Kuwaiti archive, and the file of border disputes.

With regard to the file of the missing, a joint committee could be formed between the two countries under the auspices of the United Nations to discuss and resolve this file, in addition to making more efforts to determine the fate of the missing Kuwaitis since 1990.

And he warned that the two parties must also coordinate efforts to recover the Kuwaiti archive, which was kept in the Iraqi intelligence headquarters, which was bombed and looted in 2003.

The thorny file, which is the file of demarcating the maritime borders, remains beyond the point of reference 162, so Iraq and Kuwait can refer to the UN committee.

And its documents, which drew the borders between Iraq and Iran in 1993, or resorting to an international technical committee to demarcate the water borders between the two parties, or the two parties may resort to the International Court of Justice, if all these efforts fail.

Improving relations with the United States through the strategic framework agreement

The analysis pointed out that Iraq can also gain more international credibility through its commitment to the strategic framework agreement with the United States, which could ensure that Iraq remains a strategic ally of the United States in any regional conflict.

Moreover, reforming and stabilizing the Iraqi National Security Apparatus in line with the objectives of the Strategic Framework Agreement will contribute to the development of the country's infrastructure in cooperation and coordination with US agencies and international organizations.

The analysis stressed that there is a need to restructure the Iraqi national security system to liberate Iraq from international restrictions of a defensive and security nature, especially with regard to four basic files: regional and international defense and intelligence cooperation, combating terrorism and corruption, and achieving security and stability in Iraq through a commitment to support The democratic political process, and the merging of armed entities with sovereign ministries.

There is also a need to activate the National Security Council to supervise all these files and support transparency and confidence in the banking and financial sector, which is a sticking point in relations between Iraq and the United States.

In addition, Al-Sudani’s avoidance of dealing with China or other countries, in a manner that violates Iraq’s obligations under the terms of this agreement, would contribute to building trust between Al-Sudani and the United States.

The internal situation in Iraq and the possibility of success for the Sudanese

The analysis highlighted the internal situation in Iraq, and stressed that "the Sudanese government must also work to restore voter confidence in the political process by preventing the use of coercion and force in the electoral process, and the involvement of the international community to supervise the integrity of the elections is a good way to build citizens' confidence in the electoral process."

And gaining international recognition and trust.Finally, dealing with internal issues related to the displaced and the rights of minorities and women will contribute greatly to building Iraq's reputation as a reliable and stable country.

The analysis considered "these steps" as "the road map for the return of Iraq as a normal country for the international community. If the "Sudanese" succeeds in implementing it by dealing with it as one package of "indivisible" measures and policies, then it will make Iraq a quantum leap in its contemporary history, and will accelerate However, Iraq's failure to implement these commitments and steps will open the door to chaos, conflicts and division.   LINK

The Iraqi Agreement Upsets The Balance Of World Oil Prices

Information / Baghdad..   Oil prices fell on Tuesday, as the market waited to see if Iraqi exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan would resume, which could ease the supply scarcity caused by OPEC cuts.

Brent crude fell eight cents to $84.38 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude fell seven cents to $80.65 a barrel.

A source in the office of Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani told Reuters on Monday that the minister arrived in the Turkish capital, Ankara, to discuss several issues, including the resumption of oil exports through the port of Ceyhan.

Meanwhile, pessimism about the economic outlook in China, the world's second largest oil consumer, put pressure on prices and increased concerns about fuel demand.

A preliminary poll by Reuters showed that it is expected that crude oil and gasoline inventories in the United States fell last week, which curbed the decline in oil prices.

The American Petroleum Institute is due to publish inventory data later on Tuesday. In turn, the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, will release its data on Wednesday.     LINK

A Slight Decrease In The Exchange Rate.. The Currency Auction Pumps More Than 71 Million Dollars Into The Markets

TUE, 08-22-2023, Karrar Al-Asadi   The exchange rates of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar decreased slightly, today, Tuesday, in the markets of Baghdad and the rest of the provinces, while the currency auction "pumped" more than 71 million dollars into the markets.

Today, the Central Bank of Iraq sold, during its auction for the sale and purchase of US dollars, 196 million, 599 thousand, and 621 dollars, which the bank covered at a basic exchange rate of 1305 dinars, per dollar for documentary credits and international settlements of electronic cards, and at a price of 1310 dinars per dollar for external transfers, and at the same price per dollar. In cash (131,000 dinars for every 100 dollars).

Most of the dollar sales went to enhance balances abroad in the form of (transfers, credits), which amounted to 127 million 587 thousand and 621 dollars, while cash sales amounted to 71 million and 13 thousand dollars, up by 228%, compared to yesterday, Monday, which amounted to 21 million 650. one thousand dollars.

The number of banks that bought cash dollars reached 9 banks, while the number of banks that met requests to strengthen balances abroad reached 16 banks, while the total number of exchange and mediation companies participating in the auction was 120 companies.

A Slight Decline

The exchange rates of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar decreased slightly, today, Tuesday, in the markets of Baghdad and the rest of the provinces.

The central Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya stock exchanges in Baghdad recorded this morning an exchange rate of 152,900 Iraqi dinars for 100 US dollars, while the selling prices on Sunday morning were 153,000 Iraqi dinars for 100 dollars.

As for the dollar prices in exchange shops in the local markets in Baghdad, they have stabilized, as the selling price reached 154,000 dinars, while the purchase price reached 152,000 dinars for every 100 dollars.

Months ago, Washington intervened to limit the smuggling of dollars from Iraq, which led to a rise in the price of the dollar in the local market to a record level of 170,000 dinars per hundred dollars, due to the decline in sales of the central bank of dollars, given that it is subject to the international financial system, "Swift".

The Central Bank issued 3 packages of measures to control the sale of the dollar and ensure that it is not smuggled abroad, and at the beginning of the crisis it reduced the currency auction sales, and then it recently returned to its previous level of more than one billion dollars per week.

http://non14.net/public/159519

The Dollar Is At High Levels As Treasury Yields Increase

Economy  |Today  Baghdad today - follow-up  The dollar remained close to its highest level in 10 weeks against a basket of major currencies, and also close to its highest level since November against the yen, as Treasury yields rose to new highs for the post-financial crisis period on Tuesday amid speculation that US interest rates will remain high. longer.

China's central bank supported the yuan by setting a much stronger-than-expected official daily midpoint for the currency.

The yuan was stable in early trade after coming under increasing pressure in the past weeks as investors lost patience with the slow response of Chinese monetary policy despite the slowing economy and the deterioration of the real estate sector.

The dollar index, which measures the performance of the greenback against six developed market currencies such as the yen and the euro, fell 0.1 percent to 103.24, but remained not far from Friday's high of 103.68, not seen since June 12.

"Rising US long-term yields and the disappointing response by Chinese policymakers to persistent pressures in Chinese real estate and financial markets continue to provide an upward push" for the US dollar, Westpac currency analyst Richard Franulovich wrote in a note.

Regarding Federal Reserve Chairman (US Central Bank) Jerome Powell's upcoming speech on Friday at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Franulovich said, "If Powell keeps the door open to raising (interest rates)... a new front of bullish trend for the US dollar can be formed."

Against the Japanese currency, the dollar fell 0.1% to 146.125 yen, after earlier rising to 146.425, bringing it close to Thursday's peak of 146.565, the highest since November 10.

The price of the dollar against the yen tends to be very sensitive to changes in long-term US Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year bond yield reached its highest level since November 2007 at 4.366 percent on Tuesday.

The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.09055.

Meanwhile, China's central bank set the yuan's midpoint at 7.1992 per dollar on Tuesday, in an effort to put an end to the currency's slide after it fell to a 9-and-a-half-month low of 7.349 in offshore trading last week.

The yuan witnessed little change in the latest offshore transactions and recorded 7.2872, after rising about 0.1 percent after the Chinese central bank's decision.

The Australian dollar was little changed and recorded $0.6413.    LINK

Erdogan's Contract Solver" Is Visiting Baghdad Today.. Learn About The Most Prominent Files

Policy   2023-08-22 | Source:  Alsumaria News  2,193 views  Alsumaria News – Politics   It is expected that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who has the title of "contract solver" for Erdogan, will make an official visit to the capital, Baghdad, today, Tuesday, August 22, 2023, to discuss several joint and "stuck" files between the two countries, the most prominent of which is the file Water and the resumption of oil exports to the Kurdistan region through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, amid great anticipation of the results of this visit.

According to a statement by a spokesperson  Ministry of Foreign Affairs    Ahmed Al-Sahhaf reported to Al-Sumaria News, the Turkish Foreign Minister arrives today Baghdad On a two-day official visit, during which he will meet the three presidencies, and the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Fouad Hussein".

This announcement comes in light of conflicting news about a visit that was revealed Baghdad The end of last month, to the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Iraq On July 25, a statement by the Iraqi government revealed an upcoming visit by Erdogan to the capital Baghdad He said that it was "to hold discussions" with Iraqi officials, without revealing any details about it or its official date.

According to observers, the Turkish minister's visit enhances the possibility of postponing the scheduled visit until agreement on joint files between the two countries, and Fidan's visit will pave the way for the scheduled visit of the Turkish president.

According to government sources, who spoke to Alsumaria News, "The Turkish minister will discuss the security file related to the common borders, in addition to the file of water and trade exchange between the two countries, as well as the file of resuming oil exports from the fields of the region."Kurdistanthrough the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

 Turkish efforts continue to obtain Iraqi Kurdistan's oil again, as Ankara seeks to make significant progress in negotiations with Baghdad, to restore oil supplies that were cut off 5 months ago again.

The political and governmental circles in Iraq are looking forward to the results of this visit due to the large number of joint and outstanding files between the two countries.

Last March, the Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, made an official visit to the Turkish capital, Ankara, at the head of a large ministerial and security delegation, during which he discussed several files, most notably security, borders, water, energy, and expanding trade between the two countries.

In conjunction with this visit, Iraq is witnessing an unprecedented drought crisis, due to the decline in water levels that reach the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, as a result of the water policies of Iran and Turkey, by building dams and diverting the courses of secondary rivers and preventing their entry into Iraq.

It is noteworthy that Hakan Fidan  is a Turkish politician and former officer in the armed forces who belongs to the ruling Justice and Development Party and an academic specializing in international relations and led the Turkish intelligence service. 2023.  LINK