KTFA:

Clare:  Citizen and exchange rate

9/9/2024  Bashir Khazal

 In economics, the external value of a currency lies in the presence of a balance or surplus in the current account of the balance of payments relative to the gross domestic product, which should indicate a stable state at a minimum, not less than 4 percent annually.

 To achieve this goal, it is necessary to rely on a sustainable increase in the annual growth rate of the gross domestic product, provided that exports exceed imports, within the country’s trade balance.

In the past, the country had the capacity to export goods and services more than it imported, which strengthened the value of the national currency, especially the external value of the currency itself, during those years, especially in the early seventies, and the economy indicated a positive state, in addition to the availability of foreign reserves that support the main buffer against potential external factors and their effects on the overall economic situation.

 In the current economic system, currency prices are determined globally in two main ways, namely floating and fixed prices and through local and international factors that control the strength of the currency in supply and demand, interest rates, inflation and growth in the local economy, the trade balance and other influences, but the strength of the national currency is linked to its external value, specifically the exchange rate, as the external value of money is directly linked to the stability of the current account of the balance of payments, especially in the long term, in addition to the stability of foreign reserves in the central bank of the country, which strengthens the strength of the Iraqi dinar and the stability of the exchange rate.

On the other hand, the value and stability of the currency are linked to the internal value of the national currency itself. Just as we talk about the stability of the external value of the currency in the exchange rate and its exchange power with other currencies, the internal value of the currency is the other side of the stability Currency and its strength, here the value of the national currency is directly linked to the general price level, which means the strength of goods and services expressed in money. There is a correlation between price stability and the value of the national currency, and this requires the availability of a wise monetary policy, undertaken by central banks that make the growth in the money supply commensurate with the growth in the gross domestic product or national income.

The quantitative theory of money is based on the principle of the neutrality of money, which explains that the cause of inflation in the long term is money itself, as the growth in the money supply in a way that is not commensurate with the growth in the gross domestic product leads to either inflation or contraction in the growth of the general price level

If the amount of money in the economy increases, and unless there is a parallel increase in economic output, this will lead to an increase in the general price level, and a loss of control over exchange rates, even if the state sets the exchange rate in a way that is different from what is sold in the market.

The best evidence of this is that the exchange rate in most Iraqi markets is still fluctuating between 149-150 thousand Iraqi dinars for every 100 US dollars, while the government exchange rate is 132 thousand Iraqi dinars for every 100 dollars. American, but it did not bring any significant benefit to the citizen, but rather only speculators, brokers, traders and some companies profited from the price difference.  LINK

************

Clare:  Signing several new agreements.. What is the agenda of the Iranian President's visit to Iraq?

9/10/2024

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is scheduled to arrive in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, tomorrow morning, Wednesday, on his first foreign visit since assuming his current position.

According to the visit's agenda, upon his arrival at Baghdad International Airport, Pezeshkian will head to the site of the assassination of former Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Authority, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

After that, he will head to the government palace where the official reception ceremony will take place by the President of the Republic of Iraq, Abdul Latif Jamal Rashid.

In the capital, Baghdad, Zeshkian will meet with: the Iraqi President, Acting Speaker of Parliament Mohsen Al-Mandalawi, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, and Chief Justice of the Supreme Judicial Council Judge Faiq Zidane.

On Wednesday afternoon, Bezeshkian will head to the Iranian embassy to attend two meetings, the first with Iranian merchants, and also with the Iranian community residing in Iraq.

On Wednesday evening, the Iranian president will be a guest at the dinner table of the "State Administration" coalition, which consists of most of the political blocs represented in the Iraqi parliament.

On Thursday, Bezeshkian will head to the cities of Najaf and Karbala, then to Basra in the far south of Iraq, and then to Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region.

According to information received by Shafaq News Agency, during this visit, 10 to 15 agreements will be signed in Baghdad, most of which are economic, educational and cultural, and a security agreement may be included, but it is not confirmed.

The president is accompanied by the ministers of foreign affairs, defense, and trade, as well as a group of other Iranian ministers and officials.   LINK

************

Clare:  Iraq's financial revenues exceed 77 trillion dinars in 7 months of 2024

9/10/2024

The Ministry of Finance revealed on Tuesday that the size of Iraqi revenues in the federal budget during 7 months exceeded 77 trillion dinars, confirming that the oil contribution to the budget remains around 89%.

Shafaq News Agency followed the data and tables issued by the Ministry of Finance last August for the accounts of January, February, March, April, May, June and July for the current fiscal year, which showed that oil is still the main resource for Iraq's general budget, reaching 89%, indicating that the rentier economy is the basis for the country's general budget.

The financial tables indicated that the total revenues for seven months of the current year amounted to 77 trillion, 475 billion, 502 million, 239 thousand, and 546 dinars, indicating that the total advances amounted to 15 trillion, 664 billion, 477 million, 820 thousand, and 559 dinars. 

According to the financial tables, oil revenues amounted to 69 trillion, 55 billion, 827 million, and 984 thousand dinars, which constitutes 89% of the general budget, while non-oil revenues amounted to 8 trillion, 317 billion, 883 million, and 512 thousand dinars.

For his part, economic expert Mohammed Al-Hasani said in an interview with Shafaq News Agency, "The economic problem in Iraq is due to the failure of the regimes that ruled Iraq to achieve the mission of moving towards a developmental economy by investing the oil wealth in diversifying the economy, creating productive employment opportunities, raising the level of human development, and ridding it of rentierism."

Al-Hasani stressed the necessity of "activating a set of laws that encourage the local and foreign private sector to enter the Iraqi market, including customs tariff laws, consumer protection, anti-monopoly laws, and others."

In March 2021, the Prime Minister's advisor for financial affairs, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed in an interview with Shafaq News Agency that the reasons for the economy remaining rentier are due to the wars and the imposition of an economic blockade on Iraq during the past era and the political conflicts we are witnessing today, which led to the dispersion of economic resources.

The continued reliance of the Iraqi state on oil as the sole source of the general budget puts Iraq at risk from global crises that occur from time to time due to the impact of oil on them, which makes the country turn every time to cover the deficit through borrowing from abroad or domestically, which thus indicates the inability to manage the state’s funds effectively, and the inability to find alternative financing solutions.   LINK

Clare:  Central Bank of Iraq announces comprehensive banking reform map

9/8/2024  Samir Al-Nusairi

After the Central Bank delegation returned from the last round of negotiations with the US Treasury and the US Federal Reserve, it revealed the roadmap for radical and comprehensive banking reform, which begins with working to cancel...

 The electronic platform for foreign transfers, which was implemented as a first stage to reorganize financial transfers in a way that ensures proactive control over them instead of subsequent control. This was a temporary exceptional measure and a gradual shift was planned towards building direct relationships between banks in Iraq and foreign correspondent and approved banks, mediated by an international auditing company to conduct pre-audit of transfers before they are executed by correspondent banks.

During the year 2024, up until now, 95% of the transfer process from the electronic platform to the correspondent banking mechanism directly between it and Iraqi banks has been achieved. This means that only about 5% of it remains within the platform, which will be transferred using the same mechanism before the end of this year, according to the plan.

Thus, some expectations about possible effects on the exchange rate and transfer operations are baseless, because the process will not be sudden or in one go at the end of this year, but rather it was originally achieved during the past period with effort and careful follow-up, except for the remaining small percentage that will be accomplished in the coming short period.

The Central Bank confirms that trade with the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, India and China represents about 70% of Iraq’s foreign trade as (imports), which prompted the Central Bank of Iraq to find channels for transfer in euros, Chinese yuan, Indian rupees and UAE dirhams, through approved correspondent banks in those countries. (13) Iraqi banks have actually begun to conduct transfer operations with a pre-audit mechanism that has been agreed upon and approved in addition to transfers in dollars.

Providing channels for personal transfers for legitimate purposes and external purchases through electronic payment channels, global money transfer companies, cash sales to travelers, and paying cash dollars for incoming transfers to the parties and purposes specified in the Central Bank’s published instructions.

The Central Bank stresses that it has placed foreign transfer operations and meeting dollar demands on sound tracks consistent with international practices and standards and the Anti-Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Law.

He explains that providing the aforementioned channels for all purposes at the official dollar price makes this price the true indicator of economic practices, which is proven by the reality of price stability and control of inflation, and any other price traded outside those channels is an abnormal price that those with unorthodox or illegal practices resort to, who move away from official channels in their dealings, so they bear the additional costs alone by purchasing at a higher price than the official price to delude others with the difference between the official price and others.

The map and mechanisms announced by the Central Bank will certainly lead to lifting the confusion and instability in the monetary market, which is prevalent due to the continued imposition of American restrictions on our private banks and directing accusations, slander, rumors, analyses, interpretations and targeting of the Central Bank, and will create a state of optimism by lifting the restrictions imposed on some private banks.

This means that there are great efforts made by the Central Bank, in cooperation with the government, since the beginning of 2023 until now, in the field of implementing the financial and banking reform program and fruitful coordination with financial policy, which refutes the slander.

And the accusations and spreading optimism and reassuring the market and citizens. This is what the Governor of the Central Bank had previously emphasized before the Central Bank delegation’s recent trip to America. And the new reform roadmap is a result of the efforts previously made and which the Central Bank has been working on for a year and eight months, and it is as follows:

 - Reorganizing foreign trade financing to achieve several goals at once, one of which is the transparency of foreign transfer operations that begin with the transfer process and the transferor to the final beneficiary and to the source through all data, documents and information that enhance and match reality.

All large and medium-sized companies are committed to achieving this goal. The problem now is the dealings of small traders outside the operations. 

Foreign transfers are a pressure on the dollar money market and cause it to rise.

- The Central Bank opened channels for the Chinese, Turkish, Indian and Emirati currencies, which are currencies that represent a significant weight in foreign trade, as there was a halt for a period due to a new regulation aimed at providing sufficient control over these operations.

“A new audit mechanism has been put in place by an international company, and the process has been finalised and is now being restarted.”

The Central Bank has continuously urged the opening of relations with correspondent banks, because the Iraqi bank without having external correspondents is considered a local bank and cannot open up to the world.

The Central Bank, for its part, supports and assists this trend.”

- “In light of the new regulation of the foreign exchange process, the real price at which the Central Bank sells more than $250 million daily at the official price should be considered. This means that the bank covers foreign trade, and this explains why there is no inflation or price increases.

The parallel market is a market for those who do not want to go towards the regular methods of transfer and it is an illegal trade or trade that escapes the regular procedures or other illegal operations such as drug trafficking, human trafficking, corruption money, etc.

- Whether the dollar price rose or fell is not a correct indicator, as one must look at what and how much the Central Bank sells at the official price to liquidate various needs.

- That "the primary objective of the Central Bank is to maintain the general level of prices and limit inflation, and this is supposed to be the measure of the success of monetary policy, which has succeeded in controlling this aspect and the level of inflation compared to other countries and even in previous years is much lower, and within the target, and this means that foreign trade, on which Iraq depends primarily to meet the needs of citizens, is covered by the official price."

- “There is great praise in all meetings with international organizations, including the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve, and the US Treasury, for the transformations, management, and organization of the external transfer process in the Central Bank of Iraq at the present time.”  

 And that "the Central Bank's plan until the end of the year will reach 100%, with foreign transfers between Iraqi banks and correspondent banks, without going through the US Federal Reserve.

The plan to reform and lift restrictions on banks includes two axes: the first relates to conducting an audit of previous operations that were suspected by an independent external audit office, some of which have been completed while we await the completion of the audit of others in order to determine the overall picture and classify the nature of these problems and how procedures will be carried out regarding them later.

And to reach a real, stable banking sector that is consistent with what is required at the level of the national economy, and to prevent some banks from remaining marginal and not representing a real addition to the Iraqi economy, and to gain external acceptance through agreement on their implementation of international policies, procedures and standards.

- The Central Bank has not set a quota for foreign transfers for banks, and they can submit whatever foreign transfer transactions they can attract. The Central Bank does not interfere in customers’ choices, and the banks that carry out this process rely on their capabilities to attract their customers.  LINK