The Latest Bad Premise Could Be a Disaster for the US Dollar

The Latest Bad Premise Could Be a Disaster for the US Dollar

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) February 27, 2025

On October 20, 2022, Liz Truss resigned as UK prime minister after just 44 days in office—the shortest tenure in British history.

She was brought down not by a no-confidence vote or a party coup, but by a full-scale bond market rebellion.

Her government’s proposed mini-budget, featuring sweeping tax cuts, triggered a historic sell-off in UK government bonds (gilts), sending yields soaring and the pound crashing.

As panic spread, the Bank of England was forced to intervene to prevent a financial meltdown, and with markets, party members, and the public losing faith, Truss’s premiership collapsed.

Such is the fate of governments when they don’t control the global reserve currency.

The US government should heed this warning.

But it seems more likely to barrel ahead with the false premise: America will always remain THE dominant global superpower that can do whatever it wants.

That’s the subject of today’s podcast.

We discuss these types of false premises— Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, it will take just two weeks to stop the spread of COVID— mistakes that over and over cost the US trillions of dollars.

And nowhere is this more egregious today than in the idea that the US dollar will remain the reserve currency, whatever the US does to push other countries away.

We talk about how a series of laws has escalated the weaponization of the US dollar, starting with the PATRIOT Act in 2001, then FATCA in 2010, and the freezing of Russia’s US assets in 2022.

Now, the Mar-A-Lago Accord is being floated, which includes an idea to strong-arm US allies into swapping their US Treasuries for 100-year, non-tradeable, zero-coupon bonds.

After all, the argument goes, the US provides defense for much of the world, it is only right that other nations should pay for it in some way.

But we discuss why this is such a bad idea, and how it will only push countries into finding alternatives for the US dollar, robbing the US of its power to influence global affairs with the currency, and stripping the US dollar of much of its demand, and therefore value.

You can listen to the full podcast here.

(For the audio-only version, check out our online post here.)

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/podcast/the-latest-bad-premise-could-be-a-disaster-for-the-us-dollar-podcast-152145/

This Might Actually Work: America’s Golden Visa

This Might Actually Work: America’s Golden Visa

Notes From the Fiefld By James Hickman (Simon Black)  March 4, 2025

In 2012, Puerto Rico was in the depths of a nearly decade-long recession and looming debt crisis.

The island had lost about 10% of its population— mostly young, educated professionals, i.e., the most lucrative members of its tax base.

So politicians did something radical: they established incredibly attractive tax incentives in order to attract new residents. Among others, the incentives provide a 4% corporate tax rate to approved businesses, and a 0% tax rate on investment income.

This attracted thousands of individuals and businesses from the US mainland.

That’s because, while US citizens typically have to pay taxes to the US government no matter where they live or earn their income, Puerto Rico is a rare exception where bona fide residents can escape US federal income taxes, according to the US tax code.

And Puerto Rico’s tax incentives were successful in attracting a lot of wealth to the island. In fact, I moved there myself and established a business under the incentives.

Countries often use their tax or immigration policies to attract new residents or businesses.

Also in 2012, for example, Portugal was facing a severe economic crisis. So in response, the government introduced its golden visa program, which provided residency to individuals who purchased qualifying real estate in the country.

The plan worked: by 2023, Portugal had issued over 11,000 golden visas to investors and 18,000 members of their families, attracting around €7 billion in foreign investment.

But by late 2023, after locals became fed-up with rising real estate prices, Portugal ended the real estate investment option.

But Portugal’s success inspired other European nations to launch similar programs. Some, like Spain’s, are also being terminated due to its success and rising real estate prices, while others programs like Greece’s, have merely raised the investment requirement. Still other countries, such as Hungary, are introducing their own programs.

Now, the United States is considering a similar approach with what the President is calling the “Gold Card” instead of “Green Card”.

At first glance that may seem seem odd, given that the US is already a highly attractive destination for investors and foreigners.

But the US is also the most indebted country in the history of the world. And it has a notoriously horrible immigration system.

For example, why on earth does the “Green Card Lottery” exist? The US should be awarding permanent residency to the best and brightest immigrants, not randomly picking out of a hat who gets to come in.

Unlike current US investor visas, the proposed “Gold Card” would require a significantly higher investment of $5 million, which is pretty steep just for residency.

But once again, the program it would replace is idiotic.

The existing US Immigrant Investor Program, the EB-5, requires an investment of around $1 million.

But it requires investors to navigate the Byzantine US immigration system. This includes submitting a business plan to State Department bureaucrats, as if they’re qualified to judge the merits of a business.

The old EB-5 program has injected billions into the US economy, but it has also faced scrutiny for fraud and administrative backlogs.

This proposed “Gold Card” visa differs in that it there is no mandate to generate US jobs, and there is no cap on the number of visas they can issue.

So the theoretical upper limit on revenue is huge.

The President mused, “if we sell a million, that’s $5 trillion... If we sell 10 million, which is possible — 10 million highly productive people coming in... that’s $50 trillion. That means our debt is totally paid off, and we have $15 trillion above that.”

Based on our analysis, we don’t think that’s a realistic estimate.

Outside of the United States, there are only about 120,000 “Ultra High Net Worth” individuals globally who are worth more than $50 million, according to UBS’ latest Global Wealth Reports.

So at a price tag of $5 million, those 120,000 people would be the primary target.

Even if half of them came to the United States, which is an extremely high estimate, it would be $300 billion, which doesn’t really move the needle.

But if they were to reduce the price tag to, say, $1 million, especially if it could be paid over time, then the global market could potentially generate millions of applications, and the total revenue potential for the federal government could go into the trillions.

It’s also worth pointing out that new foreign residents who cough up a million dollars to become new US residents should have a significantly positive impact on the economy.

The President also teased an idea of providing tax incentives as well, that they would only owe tax on their US income, and not their foreign income.

Currently, citizens and Green Card holders owe tax to the US government on their worldwide income. What the President is referring to is known as “non-domiciled” or “non-dom” tax regime, where only income earned in the US would be taxed.

“Non-dom” tax regimes are nothing new. The UK had a very popular one until they screwed it up last year. As a result, many welathy foreigners who were living in London are now fleeing to places like Switzerland, where you can negotiate a tax deal directly with the government.

There’s no clearer contrast to the right and the wrong approach to attracting wealth and talent to your country.

America should be considering all its options if there is any hope of reversing the decline.

And this is a good sign of that mindset. However, the outcome is still far from certain.

On the other hand, from an individual American’s perspective, it’s great that there are already golden visa programs around the world that can help you diversify internationally with foreign residency, property ownership, and investment.

Because if you live, work, invest, and have everything you hold dear in one jurisdiction (which happens to be the most indebted government in the history of the world) that’s a significant risk.

With problems the size of America’s, you don’t want all your eggs in one basket.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/this-might-actually-work-americas-golden-visa-152159/

7 Things Wealthy People Do With Their Money

7 Things Wealthy People Do With Their Money (That You Should Also Be Doing)

Jennifer Taylor  Sun, March 2, 2025  GOBankingRates

Wealthy people have a track record of making some pretty serious money moves. When you have that much wealth, a whole world of opportunities opens up for you. For the rest of us, these strategies can feel completely out of reach.

It’s true to an extent, but even the wealthy elite are following some core principles any of us can adopt. If you’re interested in growing your net worth, consider taking a page from their book. These are some tried and true things the super-rich do with their money that any of us can do.

They Live Within Their Means

Many people live a lifestyle that creates the illusion of wealth, without actually having the cash to back it up. But people who are truly wealthy know not to spend money they don’t have.

In fact, it’s common for people with serious wealth to live below their means. They often live in modest homes, drive practical cars and adhere to a strict budget. Their net worth might surprise many people, but this is exactly how they were able to build it.

Of course, this isn’t true across the board. Plenty of wealthy people do live lavishly, but we can all take some inspiration from those rich people known for living like average Joes.

They Secure Future Income

Wealthy people are almost always looking toward the future. Instant gratification usually comes at the expense of long-term stability, and they know this all too well.

That’s why the rich often focus on securing future income, and one good way to do this is with an annuity. Annuities are contracts between you and an insurance company that allow you to earn interest on a lump-sum investment.

Generally speaking, payouts can be offered for life or span a specific time period. This investment option is growing in popularity, and many issuers are currently offering high rates.

They Put Their Money To Work

TO READ MORE:  https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/7-things-wealthy-elite-money-162850984.html

5 Things Wealthy Parents Teach Their Kids That the Middle Class Might Not

5 Things Wealthy Parents Teach Their Kids That the Middle Class Might Not

Dawn Allcot  Mon, Mar 3, 2025,

It’s often said, especially in the United States, that the rich get richer. It’s obviously easier to build wealth if you already have money to invest, a financial education and successful parents who can guide you.

For instance, Amazon may not exist today if Jeff Bezos’ parents’ had not shelled out close to $250,000 in start-up capital so he could launch the online bookstore in his garage, as widely reported by multiple sources. But it wasn’t just their cash that gave the young entrepreneur a leg up. In an article published by People, Bezos referred to his parents as “loving and supportive.”

Besides start-up capital and a safety net that enables people with more money to take bigger risks, what else do wealthy parents give their children that most middle-class parents don’t?

Real-Life Lessons on the Importance of Earning

While middle-class families may offer children an allowance to teach the basics of saving and compound interest, wealthy families emphasize the importance of earning.

“We don’t recommend that wealthy families just give an allowance — especially if the kids aren’t earning it in any way,” said Brian Weiner, founder of the Family Office Resource Group.

Taryn Pumphrey, president of Ledger Lift, agreed, describing how one local retail business owner she worked with involved her children in the family business.

“Rather than simply giving allowances, she tied their earnings to specific business tasks like inventory counting or organizing receipts, teaching both financial literacy and business operations simultaneously,” she said.

How To View Money as a Tool

Wealthy families often have neutral conversations about money, which can alleviate stress and help children view money as a tool, rather than the end goal.

TO READ MORE:  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-things-wealthy-parents-teach-190029751.html

9 Biggest Mistakes High Income/High Net Worth Millennials Make

9 Biggest Mistakes High Income/High Net Worth Millennials Make

Thomas Kopelman

We often associate wealth with financial expertise, but this could not be further from the truth. High net worth people are not immune to making mistakes. In fact, they make just as many mistakes, if not more than everyone else.  And the worst part about it is that these mistakes they make can be even more costly due to higher dollar amounts behind the mistakes.

Let me help you avoid this by walking you through 9 of the most common mistakes I see high net worth millennials make.

Note: Learn from these. You can easily avoid them!

1. Thinking Their Income Will Always Be There

This might apply towards people with high incomes more than people with high net worths. But regardless, this group of people are taking on a huge risk assuming that their income will always be there. There are 3 main ways income can be lost:

Loss of job – Plenty of high income folks get cut when businesses are not doing well. This is why diversifying, building up assets, having an emergency fund, etc. is crucial.

A disability putting you out of work – 1/4 millennials will have a disability that stops them from working. The stats are scary. Having disability insurance in place to protect your income can be crucial!

Business Failing – Many high net worth accumulators are business owners. This means most of their wealth is in the business and their income is tied to it. That concentration brings on a lot of risk. Managing this business well and diversifying as you earn is crucial to keep you on a good path. Do not just use your business as a piggy bank.

2. Making Their Finances Too Complex

This is something I see way too often, people start making good money and their wealth builds. And because of this, they think they need to start investing in anything and everything.

Anytime a friend or someone they know comes with a business idea, they get involved. And then all of the sudden their balance sheet is all over the place. They have little organization or coordination, and oftentimes even lack liquidity.

Be careful doing this! You do not need to invest in anything and everything. Oftentimes the best strategy is to keep things simple. You do not want to get burned.

3. Taking On Too Much Unneeded Risk

TO READ MORE: https://thomaskopelman.com/2023/08/9-biggest-mistakes-high-income-high-net-worth-millennials-make/?utm_source=apexmoney&utm_medium=dailynewsletter&utm_campaign=keep-it-simple

Get Ready to Pay

Get Ready to Pay for Paris Hilton’s New House [Podcast]

Notes From the Field by James Hickman  (Simon Black) January 14, 2025

In 1913, 24-year-old Charlie Chaplin arrived in Los Angeles, drawn by an offer from Keystone Film Company. Coming from a poverty-stricken childhood in London and a successful vaudeville career, Chaplin found in Los Angeles a place of limitless potential.

The city was largely undeveloped, surrounded by orange groves, open fields and dirt roads where coyotes still roamed. But it offered the perfect backdrop for the burgeoning film industry— mountains, oceans, deserts— and a chance to escape the constraints of traditional theater.

While San Francisco had flourished during the gold rush, Los Angeles was entering its own boom, fueled by filmmaking. Chaplin quickly became the silent era’s most famous actor, transforming the medium while the city grew into the heart of the movie industry.

Like Chaplin, Los Angeles embodied the spirit of creative freedom, shaping modern entertainment for a century.

The city, especially Hollywood, became synonymous with the film industry, and perhaps took that for granted.

Like California in general, LA assumed that however poorly it treated its residents, however burdensome the regulation, however high the taxes, people would still come flocking like there was gold in the hills.

If you ever wanted to be the author of your own decline, follow the example of California, and Los Angeles in particular.

Hollywood has chased away its own industry to burgeoning film locations like Georgia, New Mexico, and Toronto. Georgia especially is raking in the benefits from LA’s decline.

Los Angeles was a one industry town, and they chased it away.

They forced countless lockdowns on the city during COVID, even threatened to cut off water to those who dared to invite guests over. They declared themselves a sanctuary city against federal law, inviting illegals to enjoy a multitude of free benefits— then expected federal dollars to pay for it.

They cut police, and refused to enforce basic laws against things like shoplifting, or keep even serious criminals in prison. They destroyed education, from elementary to university.

And every business and individual is absolutely drowned in useless permitting.

Oh, and with all their idiotic spending priorities, somehow fire fighting, in an area prone to wildfires, seems to be the only thing they were unwilling to properly fund.

Who would want to continue doing business there? Or invest there? Or live there?

And tax revenue and talented workers are part of the exodus.

California ran things into the ground until they no long had money for basic services.

But hey, at least people can still get private insurance when the government fails them!

Oh wait, California has also run them out of town. Because of California’s regulatory burden many insurance companies no longer do business in the state. And that has left a number of people, including those whose homes have burned down, without insurance.

California has long relied on federal bailouts to fund all these idiotic policies. Their COVID lockdowns were paid for with federal tax dollars, and they’ve received bags of cash from the Biden administration to help pay for migrant care.

The damage from these fires could easily exceed $50 billion, and again, since they have chased away insurance companies, I have a funny feeling that California is going to have its hand out to the federal government once again to help people rebuild form a crisis that was not only preventable but a direct result of political incompetence.

Would you be surprised if the federal government came to their rescue, and US taxpayers ended up paying for poor Paris Hilton’s burned out mansion, because no one would give her insurance?

There used to be a saying, "As California goes, so goes the nation."

And to be frank, I think that’s right. The US itself has some deep challenges brought on by the last several years of horrific leadership and terrible priorities.

There is, starting next week, an opportunity to makes things right and get it back on track. And I am certainly rooting for them to pull it off.

If they don’t, we don’t have to wonder what the future of the US looks like— the whole world can see the failures of the left, in Los Angeles today, laid to waste.

And it is a snapshot of what might come if the incoming leadership isn’t able to right the ship.

Tune in to today’s podcast where we talk about this in greater depth, including at the end explaining our whole ethos on building a Plan B.

(For the audio-only version, check out our online post here.)

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/get-ready-to-pay-for-paris-hiltons-new-house-podcast-151973/

Warren Buffett’s Advice For Your Plan B

Warren Buffett’s Advice For Your Plan B

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  February 24, 2025

On February 27, 2009 the global financial crisis had been raging for five long months.

Many of us remember it like it was yesterday. Entire economies were ravaged. Some of the world’s largest businesses failed. Others only survived thanks to unprecedented government bailouts. Unemployment surged. Countless people lost their homes.

It was brutal— the worst economic crisis almost everyone had ever experienced. But Warren Buffett, aged 78 years young at the time, was still a cheerleader for America despite all the darkness and gloom.

He wrote to the world in his annual letter, which was released that day:

“Amid this bad news, however, never forget that our country has faced far worse travails in the past. In the 20th Century alone, we dealt with two great wars (one of which we initially appeared to be losing); a dozen or so panics and recessions; virulent inflation that led to a 21 1/2 % prime rate in 1980; and the Great Depression of the 1930s, when unemployment ranged between 15% and 25% for many years. America has had no shortage of challenges.”

In short, he wrote, “America’s best days lie ahead.”

Powerful words at such a dark time. Yet optimism has been Buffett’s consistent tone for decades.

But this weekend his 2024 annual letter was released, and it has a significantly different tone, including some very thinly-veiled criticism that politicians need to spend taxpayer money wisely, and to “maintain a stable currency, [which] requires both wisdom and vigilance”.

It’s hard to argue with that point. We’ve obviously been writing about this for 15 years. And it’s nice to see someone in Buffett’s position finally acknowledge that politicians should spend money responsibly and not run multi-trillion dollar budget deficits.

As it stands today, the US national debt exceeds $36.2 trillion. And in the last fiscal year alone, the government spent $2.4 trillion more than it collected in tax revenue.

In fact according to the government’s own financial report, the single largest increase in cost was interest on the federal debt, which ballooned to more than $1.1 trillion— exceeding even military spending.

As we’ve written many times in the past, if this trend isn’t corrected very quickly, the consequences will likely result in extremely painful inflation.

Buffett acknowledges this when he writes, “Paper money can see its value evaporate if fiscal folly prevails. In some countries, this reckless practice has become habitual, and, in our country’s short history, the U.S. has come close to the edge.”

True statement. In fact the US is pretty close to the edge right now.

There is a very narrow window of opportunity for the government to cut the deficit, balance the budget, and restore confidence. And it’s obvious that some people are trying really hard to make this happen.

But there’s certainly no guarantee they’ll be successful... which is why it makes so much sense to have a Plan B.  Coincidentally, Buffett offers some advice on this front.

For starters, he suggests that a great business can be an excellent hedge against inflation, stating that they “will usually find a way to cope with monetary instability as long as their goods or services are desired by the country’s citizenry.”

I couldn’t agree more. We’ve been writing about this for a long time, in particular that real assets make sense because they are the most important, vital, critical resources in an economy.

In more difficult times, including during inflation, people tend to really prioritize how they spend their money. Recreation, luxuries, and frivolous purchases are curtailed. And essential staples like food, energy, healthcare, and other critical categories become the most important.

Businesses similarly cut back on expensive perks and wasteful moonshots and instead invest in productive technologies which enhance their bottom lines.

This aligns entirely with Buffett’s view that “desired” goods and services will still be successful. I would clarify further that “critical” and “essential” goods and services will be successful, especially if they can be exported abroad.

Speaking of looking abroad, Buffett also talks about Berkshire Hathaway’s growing holdings in Japan, under the headline, “Berkshire Increases Its Japanese Investments.”

In my view this is one of the most essential parts of a Plan B— international diversification.

If you live, work, invest and hold all of your savings and assets in the same country, this is the equivalent of putting all of your eggs in one basket. If something goes wrong in that single country, everything you’ve worked to achieve over your entire life can be put at risk.

It’s 2025, not the 15th century anymore. Today it’s easy to diversify around the world. Like Buffett, you can invest a portion of your savings abroad in different economies and currencies.

And money aside, you can also diversify many things in your personal life. You can have a second home abroad, a second residency, and a second passport. You can seek high quality inexpensive healthcare overseas. You can send your children abroad to university to receive a fantastic education at a fraction of the price.

International diversification is a very sensible strategy that rational people take very seriously.

And diversifying abroad doesn’t mean that someone is paranoid, pessimistic, or unpatriotic. I doubt Warren Buffett feels any shame or guilt for diversifying a portion of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio in the Japanese economy.

As a final point on the topic of investing Buffett writes that, “often, nothing looks compelling.”

By this he means that many times investments seem very expensive. This has been the case with a number of popular companies whose stock prices trade for outrageously high valuations.

For value investors like Buffett who want to buy “wonderful businesses at a fair price,” the best option is to sit patiently and wait for the right buying opportunity.

Yet “very infrequently”, he writes, “we find ourselves knee deep in opportunities.”

And it is in these moments that he becomes very greedy (his word, not mine) to scoop up high quality assets on the cheap.

We’ve been writing for quite some time that there is such an opportunity now.

Gold is presently hovering at an all time high, and there is scope for it to go much higher. If the current deficit trend in the United States continues, we could see $5,000+ gold over the next few years, due primarily to foreign central banks trading their dollars and Treasury bonds for gold.

Yet, despite gold being at an all-time high, there are extremely efficient, well-managed, profitable gold companies with pristine balance sheets whose shares are trading at laughably cheap valuations.

This mismatch doesn’t make any sense. And it absolutely will not last.

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/warren-buffetts-advice-for-your-plan-b-152129/

5 Bad Financial Habits Americans Don’t Realize Cost Them Thousands

5 Bad Financial Habits Americans Don’t Realize Cost Them Thousands

Emily Fowler  Mon, February 24, 2025 GOBankingRates

More Americans are focusing on their finances in 2025 than they have in the past 10 years, according to a recent study from Allianz Life. But while many plan to improve their financial stability, stress levels around finances are still high, with only 16% of people saying they’re less stressed than last year.

Here are five financial habits that could be contributing to those stress levels and costing thousands.

 Excessive Spending on Nonessentials

An occasional treat isn’t the problem. It’s the frequent, mindless purchases that add up. The study found 30% of Americans admit to spending too much on things they don’t need. Anything from online impulse buys to yet another unused subscription can snowball.

Take that coffee habit. Say you buy a $4.75 coffee every week day. That will cost over $1,000 a year. With coffee prices increasing after having just reached an all-time high, according to Business Insider, that habit could cost even more in 2025!

Neglecting Savings

A significant 28% of Americans save nothing, while 27% save less than they could, per Allianz. Without a habit of consistent saving, even a minor financial setback can lead to debt. And with 49% worrying about their income and retirement income, a lack of savings can be added stress.

Automating transfers to a savings account ensures money is set aside before it’s spent, and even starting with small, regular deposits builds up over time.

Carrying Credit Card Debt Too Long

High-interest debt is a financial sinkhole, yet 23% of Americans aren’t paying down debt fast enough, according to the study. Interest charges quickly inflate balances, making it harder to get ahead. The average credit card interest rate as of Feb. 17 was 28.7%, according to the Forbes Advisor weekly credit card rates report.

Making monthly payments of $200 on a credit card balance of $7,500 with a 28% interest rate (APR) would take nearly eight years to clear and mean more than $10,000 in interest paid.

TO READ MORE:  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-bad-financial-habits-americans-170051610.html

Ask 9 Questions To Choose the Right Financial Advisors

Rachel Cruze: Ask 9 Questions To Choose the Right Financial Advisors

Ashley Donohoe  Sun, February 23, 2025  GOBankingRates

Whether you’re selling a house, choosing tax strategies or making a retirement portfolio, handling complex financial situations on your own can lead to costly mistakes, missed opportunities and possibly legal issues. Money expert Rachel Cruze advises partnering with various types of financial advisors who have the knowledge to help you make better decisions and ensure you’re building wealth properly.

However, you should be prepared to put some time into finding trusted people who will focus on what’s best for your situation rather than just their profits from commissions or fees.

In a recent YouTube video, Cruze highlighted nine questions to ask when attempting to choose the right financial advisors — three each for tax and investing professionals.

Real Estate Agents

1. How Many Homes Did You Sell Last Year?

Asking an agent this question might help you avoid having your home on the market for too long. It will give you an idea of the agent’s selling skills and experience to compare with other potential agents.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau also suggested asking related questions about the types of properties the person has sold and their neighborhoods.

2. What’s Your Schedule and Availability Like?

Cruze discussed how the schedule of  agents can widely vary and impact your experience. For example, a full-time agent might be more dedicated to helping you any day of the week versus someone who occasionally sells houses as a side job. Make sure the potential agent has the time to meet with you when you’re available and will be committed.

3. How Much Commission Do You Get?

TO READ MORE:  https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/rachel-cruze-ask-9-questions-120106343.html

The US Government Has To Sell $28 Trillion Of Debt In The Next 4 Years

The US Government Has To Sell $28 Trillion Of Debt In The Next 4 Years

Notes From the Field BY James Hickman ( Simon Black )  February 19, 2025

Last summer, the Federal Reserve wanted you to believe that inflation was a thing of the past.

Sure, just about every category of consumer goods had increased in price. Electricity rates had increased 5% year over year. Rent and housing costs were up 5%. Hospital care had become 6% more expensive. Food prices were up. Fuel prices were up. Auto insurance had risen by a whopping 18.6%.

Yet, bizarrely, the overall inflation average was just 2.9%. And based on that number alone, the Federal Reserve had all but declared victory against inflation.

We knew it was BS. And, after diving into the numbers, it didn’t take us very long to realize why.

It turned out that, back in the summer of 2024, used car prices were falling dramatically— down around 11% year-over-year.

You probably remember what happened: during the pandemic, supply chain snarls and factory closures caused used car prices to go through the roof. Eventually, prices peaked... and then started to fall.

By July 2024, used car prices were still on their way down... essentially returning to a more ‘normal’ level. And based on the way that the government calculates inflation, the huge drop in used car prices dragged down the overall average, making the headline inflation rate appear smaller than it really was.

We wrote about this last summer. And we predicted that the decline in used car prices would soon cease... essentially eliminating the key drag that was holding the inflation rate down.

That has now happened. And as of last month, used car prices are no longer falling... and the overall rate of inflation is once again on the rise.

This is where our discussion begins in today’s podcast, and it’s an important one. We talk about why, at this point, lingering inflation is a major challenge. And it’s becoming a more likely scenario.

There are obviously some forces within the government that are working really hard to cut spending. There are also legions of misguided (or flat-out corrupt) politicians who are fighting to prevent those budget cuts from happening.

It’s a see-saw right now and could go either way. But, at least for now, the government is still spending taxpayer money like a drunken sailor.

Last year’s budget deficit was nearly $2 trillion. They’re already on track to repeat that this year. All of that deficit spending adds to the $36+ trillion national debt.

But what makes matters even worse is that an unbelievable $28 trillion of the national debt will have to be refinanced over the next four years, according to Federal Reserve data. (We show you the Fed’s data in the podcast— it’s a chart you’ll want to see.)

The key problem, of course, is that interest rates are significantly higher today than they were several years ago. So when the Treasury Department refinances that $28 trillion in debt, it will be at a MUCH higher rate.

Think about it— if most of that debt was sold at a 2% rate, but now they have to refinance at 5%, then that’s an extra 3% interest to pay on $28 trillion— or $840 billion per year in additional interest.

Remember that the government’s interest bill is already $1.1 trillion per year. So in four years it could easily eclipse $2 trillion per year. Again, this is just the amount of interest.

It’s also pretty clear that a lot of foreign governments and central banks— who own a huge chunk of that $28 trillion which needs to be refinanced— are looking to diversify away from the dollar.

It’s already happening; obviously there are the loudmouthed BRICS countries that have started trading with one another in their own currencies, and thus begun reducing their dollar holdings. But even supposed ally nations in Europe are starting to trade their US dollar reserves for gold.

This is setting up a precarious situation... because if foreign governments and central banks continue reducing their dollar exposure, then who is going to buy up all that $28 trillion worth of US government debt that needs to be refinanced?

Well, the only remaining lender is the Federal Reserve. And as we’ve discussed before, the Fed buys government bonds by printing money... which ultimately causes inflation.

During the pandemic, the Fed printed $5 trillion and we got 9% inflation. Over the next four years the Fed might have to print a good chunk of that $28 trillion just to help refinance US government debt. So what will inflation be? No one knows. But probably not their magical 2% target.

The only way out is to slash government spending. And certainly there is a lot of low hanging fruit for DOGE to cut, which could get the deficit (and therefore inflation) under control.

But this is far from a risk-free proposition. And that’s why it still makes so much sense to have a Plan B.

We discuss all this, and more, in today’s podcast— and we hope you take time to listen in here.

(For the audio-only version, check out our online post here.)

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/podcast/the-us-government-has-to-sell-28-trillion-of-debt-in-the-next-4-years-podcast-152106/

'It's An American Duty To Not Pay Our Taxes' — Robert Kiyosaki Proudly Says

'It's An American Duty To Not Pay Our Taxes' — Robert Kiyosaki Proudly Says He's $1.2 Billion In Debt Because It Legally Leaves Him Tax-Free

Jeannine Mancini  Thu, February 20, 2025  Benzinga

You've heard it a million times—debt is bad, get out of debt, Americans are drowning in debt. The headlines paint it as the ultimate financial nightmare. But not everyone sees it that way. Best-selling "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author Robert Kiyosaki proudly boasts about being $1.2 billion in debt—and according to him, that's exactly how he legally avoids paying taxes.

How Kiyosaki Uses Debt to His Advantage

In a January 2024 Instagram video captioned "Confession: This is why I am $1.2 billion in debt," Kiyosaki explained his controversial stance.

"Today, I own about 12,000 rental units. How did I acquire those properties? I used debt. See, the more debt I use, the more property I own, the less tax I pay," Kiyosaki said.

He went on to argue that taxes are a "Marxist idea," referencing "The Communist Manifesto." "And people say, ‘Well, you should pay taxes.' No, we shouldn't. America was founded as a tax-free nation... We were tax-free until 1913 when the Fed was created. The same year, guess what else was created? The IRS."

Kiyosaki didn't stop there. He took it a step further, declaring, "And I think it's an American duty not to pay our taxes. Because if you read the Communist Manifesto, you'd know why."

Kiyosaki's strategy relies on leveraging debt to acquire income-generating real estate while taking advantage of tax laws that allow deductions, depreciation, and other benefits. And he's not just talking about it—he's doing it.

The Real Estate Tax Advantages

Kiyosaki's approach isn't some loophole; it's built into U.S. tax law. Real estate investing offers several legal ways to reduce taxable income:

TO READ MORE:  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-duty-not-pay-taxes-150047669.html

5 Best Dave Ramsey Money Tips To Adopt in 2025

5 Best Dave Ramsey Money Tips To Adopt in 2025

Cara Danielle Brown   Wed, February 19, 2025  GOBankingRates

Personal finance expert Dave Ramsey has become one of America’s most trusted voices for individuals wanting to learn how to take control of their money. From paying off debt to getting on a budget, Ramsey’s guidance has helped millions become educated and empowered.

With 2025’s financial climate off to a strong yet erratic start, some are looking to the finance guru, wondering which of his money tips are most useful to adopt in real time. Here are five that could help put you on the right path.

Pay Off Your Debt

“One of Ramsey’s foundational principles is eliminating debt,” said Melanie Musson, insurance and finance expert at Clearsurance.com. “Instead of seeking out new debt, people should seek to pay off their debts and avoid borrowing more. … Avoiding debt allows you to live freely.”

Consider the current climate: Interest rates remain high at 4.25% to 4.5%, and the Fed has indicated they are in no rush to lower them. Additionally, the global economy is facing uncertainties by way of geopolitical tensions and fluctuating currency values. And, according to Federal Reserve Data from November 2024, big banks are charging the average consumer 22.8% interest on credit cards.

Failing to pay down debt at any time — but particularly in the current economy — will quite literally compound the problem.

Thomas Alessi, president at ARIES Foundation for Financial Education, supports Ramsey’s debt snowball method — a strategy where individuals pay the minimum amount on all their debts except for the smallest one, which is paid off more aggressively. When the smallest debt has been cleared, the next-smallest takes priority, and so on.

Clearing debts in ascending order is a psychological trick that gives people confidence and focus, explained Alessi. “We can start to see our way out, and it allows us to feel empowered in handling our finances.”

Cut Back on Discretionary Spending

When it comes to saving money, Ramsey advocates cutting back on non-essential spending by distinguishing between a need and a want. As a Ramsey Solutions article on his website explained, needs are essentials, like food and shelter, while wants consist of non-essentials you desire but can live without — like home upgrades and entertainment.

TO READ MORE: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/5-best-dave-ramsey-money-150014042.html

This Is the Max Number of Bank Accounts You Should Have

Self-Made Millionaire: This Is the Max Number of Bank Accounts You Should Have

Gabrielle Olya  Wed, February 19, 2025   GOBankingRates

In her book “Crush Your Money Goals,” financial coach and self-made millionaire Bernadette Joy writes that the first step toward achieving financial freedom is to “curate” your financial accounts. This means reviewing every financial account you have open — your bank accounts, credit cards, loans and properties in your name. Once you have a list of your accounts, it’s time to streamline them and consolidate them into 20.

 “When it comes to achieving financial independence, the fewer accounts you have, the fewer opportunities for mistakes or precious money to fall through the cracks,” she wrote.

Think of each of your financial accounts as a separate handbag,” Joy continued. “Having multiple checking, savings and investment accounts and credit cards is like carrying around an armful of handbags with just a little bit of money in each. It’s not efficient and it feels a little silly.”

While Joy recommends having 20 financial accounts total, your bank accounts should be a small fraction of that.

How Many Bank Accounts Should You Have?

According to Joy, you should have no more than three bank accounts — or four if you own a business.

TO READ MORE:  https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/self-made-millionaire-max-number-190026431.html