Warren Buffett Issues A Warning Ahead Of The $84 Trillion Great Wealth Transfer

Warren Buffett Issues A Warning For All Parents Ahead Of The $84 Trillion Great Wealth Transfer

Chloe Berger  Updated Tue, November 26, 2024  Fortune

Planning your will could make or break your family after your death, warns Berkshire Hathaway CEO and legendary investor Warren Buffett.

"Father time always wins. But he can be fickle,” the 94-year-old billionaire noted in an unusually candid letter released on Monday.

Conversations addressing one’s own death can be a difficult subject to broach. The logistics of what happens to our money and belongings can be an equally dreaded task. But ahead of the $84 trillion Great Wealth Transfer, Buffett asserts that there’s no sense in delaying the uncomfortable and risking future conflicts down the line.

Buffett’s Advice For Parents

As one of the richest people in the world, Buffett is currently worth more than $151 billion. He has voiced his plans for his massive nest egg, pledging in 2010 (alongside Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates) to give at least half of his fortune to charity before his death.

That’s all to say, Buffett’s riches and ensuing estate planning probably seem outside the realm of possibility for most of us. But while Buffett chips away and distributes his massive wealth, he appears to have found advice that’s applicable to more than just billionaires.

“I have one further suggestion for all parents, whether they are of modest or staggering wealth. When your children are mature, have them read your will before you sign it,” he wrote.

Your will should be a dialogue, in the eyes of Buffett. He suggests that parents make sure their children understand “both the logic for your decisions and the responsibilities they will encounter upon your death.” Then a benefactor should answer said questions or concerns, “listen carefully, and adopt those found sensible.”

Buffett admits to doing as much with his kids over the years, and hearing their feedback and suggestions. “There is nothing wrong with my having to defend my thoughts. My dad did the same with me,” he explained.

Many Americans treat money as a taboo topic within their families, but they don’t feel better off for it. Most (56%) say their parents never spoke of money with them, though a striking 81% believe that they would have benefited from having financial education at an earlier age, according to the Fidelity Investments State of Wealth Mobility survey.

Plagued by financial insecurity, younger generations are eagerly awaiting a Great Wealth Transfer—or inheritance from their older relatives. The changing of the tides will likely take place by 2045 and be worth about $84 trillion, Boston-based market researcher Cerulli Associates projected in 2022.

But as boomers and the silent generation prepare to hand off assets and savings, wrinkles start to form. Expectations can be out of alignment, with Gen Z and millennial offspring anticipating to receive more than their elders say they expect to leave behind, according to Northwestern Mutual in ITS Harris Poll survey of more than 4,500 U.S. adults.

And most Americans (72%) report that they don’t feel they have enough financial confidence to manage a large influx of money by themselves, per a Citizens Bank survey of 1,500 U.S. adults. Millennials especially report feeling a lack of confidence in managing a potential future windfall. But a little bit of preparation beforehand could perhaps ease the minds of the privileged young beneficiaries of the Great Wealth Transfer.

When Wills Go Wrong

TO READ MORE:  https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/warren-buffett-issues-warning-parents-174136443.html

The ‘Hermit’ Savings Rules: 8 Frugal Tips for Today’s Economy

The ‘Hermit’ Savings Rules: 8 Frugal Tips for Today’s Economy

Cindy Lamothe  Mon, November 25, 2024   GOBankingRates

When your personal finances combine with your personal space, your spending habits and savings account might be working a bit more harmoniously too. Consumer practices across the world have been altered significantly over the past few years — for obvious reasons and otherwise — in what economists have dubbed “the age of the hermit consumer.”

“For ‘hermit’ consumers, it can be really easy to make impulse purchases and overspend because of how easy and convenient shopping online is,” said Carter Seuthe, CEO of Credit Summit Consolidation. “Something that can be helpful to maintain a more frugal budget is just to define your expectations and priorities when it comes to the amenities you have.”

Whether it’s how you approach your visit to the grocery store or price-matching your favorite online retailers, the how, when and where you swipe your credit card has simply changed. If you embrace the hermit lifestyle and prefer your saving and spending to be done in a vacuum, below are some expert frugal living tips to thrive in today’s economy.

Embrace a DIY Mentality

“DIY is my new favorite hobby,” said Andrei Vasilescu, co-founder and CEO of DontPayFull. “It’s cost-effective, and YouTube is a great teacher. About 50% more people are getting into DIY now.”

Syed Lateef, business coach and CEO of SyedBNB, agrees. “We can all see it,” Lateef said. “The focus has shifted towards a more home-oriented lifestyle, and I can personally say that more people are embracing do-it-yourself (DIY) activities.”

He said this is a good thing because mastering basic skills for home and car repairs can lead to considerable savings. Simply put, it’s better to invest your time than a third of your paycheck every time you need some general maintenance or repairs done.

“Nowadays, the hundreds of online tutorials and resources makes it easier than ever to learn and perform these tasks ourselves,” he said, “reducing the need to hire professionals.”

Save Money by Cooking at Home

“The driving force behind the hermit economy isn’t entirely clear,” Lateef said. He said it could be due to the lingering hesitation for close-contact services, the increase in remote work or a shift in social values. Instead of dinner and a movie out, you can now meal-plan and binge on your favorite streaming service.

“What’s obvious, though,” he said, “is that consumers are now more inclined to spend on home-centric activities.”

As a result, he said, many followers of the FIRE (financial independence, retire early) movement have come to realize that frequent dining out can be quite costly. So, frugal individuals are embracing the art of cooking at home, experimenting with budget-friendly and nutritious meals.

He added, “Hermit consumers save money but also encourage healthier eating habits.”

Focus on Secondhand Finds

Repurposing secondhand or vintage items such as clothing or home decor is both economically and environmentally friendly. In the current economic climate, looking at secondhand alternatives before buying new is a wise strategy, Lateef suggested.

“I believe that the ‘hermit’ consumers are now placing more emphasis on sustainability because of the pandemic, so shops like thrift stores and online marketplaces are trending because of the treasure troves of affordable, yet quality items.”

In terms of frugality, he said, this not only helps save money but also aligns with sustainable practices by repurposing and recycling items.

TO READ MORE:  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hermit-savings-rules-8-frugal-140043078.html

6 Valuable Everyday Items You Should Never Throw Away

6 Valuable Everyday Items You Should Never Throw Away

Justice Petersen  Sun, November 24, 2024 at 3:00 PM EST 3 min read

While it’s beneficial to declutter every once in a while, there are certain items around your home that, although they seem like everyday objects, can still hold significant value. Many seemingly worthless items may be better to sell, repurpose or recycle so you can help the environment, potentially make some extra money and use every item you’ve received to its fullest potential.

Listed below are six everyday items that you should never get rid of.

Empty Containers

Whether it’s glass jars, or stainless steel or tin cans, empty containers can last a long time and be used for various purposes besides their original use. These items can be repurposed as storage solutions for small household items, such as spices or craft supplies. They can also be reused for meal prep or storing leftovers. Additionally, certain containers can bring in a decent amount of money if you take them to a recycling program.

Unused Gift Cards

Many people stash away gift cards that have very little money on them. However, even these small balances can add up over time. By using these cards — or selling them on platforms that allow you to exchange or sell the unused balances on them — you can utilize these seemingly worthless items lying around your house.

Expired Coupons

Contrary to what one would expect, expired coupons may still hold value. Some retailers will honor an expired coupon within a limited timeframe or will offer similar discounts instead. Similar to unused gift cards, certain websites also allow the trading or selling of coupons, allowing financially savvy shoppers to get more use out of these items that would otherwise be thrown away.

Broken or Old Electronics

Though they may be broken or outdated, these electronics may be of some worth if you don’t throw them away. Some parts of old or broken electronics, such as circuit boards, batteries and certain metals, can be sold to electronics salvagers or people who enjoy fixing things up as a DIY hobby. Be sure to look into online marketplaces or recycling centers that will specifically buy electronics.

TO READ MORE:   https://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-valuable-everyday-items-never-130029354.html

19 "Don't Do It" Purchases

19 "Don't Do It" Purchases Older Adults Are Warning Millennials And Gen Z Not To Make

Alana Valko  Fri, November 22, 2024  BuzzFeed

We've all been let down by a purchase that didn't exactly meet our expectations.

And, in adulthood, buyer's remorse can sting a little harder — especially when those purchases become bigger and have more financial consequences.

Because none of us want to make the wrong bet, I asked older adults in the BuzzFeed Community to share the purchases they'd never recommend Gen Z'ers, Millennials, or any young adult make.

Here's everything they shared:

1."Don't buy extended warranties! Save your money. Over my 40 years of not buying them, there were only two times I might have been able to use one. Especially don't buy them on inexpensive items or on items like laptops where the technology changes so rapidly. Makes no sense."

2."Sort of a niche answer, but maybe someone will appreciate: Whole-life insurance is a rip-off. Super profitable for the company selling it. It's about 5x the cost of basic term life, and it comes with an investment account, but you can create the same setup yourself by buying the cheaper term life for 20% of the cost and putting the remaining 80% you saved yourself into your own investment account (retirement or whatever). You'll come out far ahead of where the whole-life policy would have gotten you."

3."Don't get hyped up by sales. They always tell you that it will end tomorrow, and it will, but the day after tomorrow, there will be another one. Pay when you're ready; prices will generally only go down (except for the new stuff). In some cases, be willing to go refurbished. You will often get something as good as the condition your new item would have been in after one month of usage."

Price tag showing a sale item originally priced at 179.00, now reduced to 129.00 at Manor. Includes barcodes and product codes

(Cont'd) "Fashion is idiotic. Looking trendy is expensive, and the only people you will lose as friends are the superficial ones (win-win). Everything trendy today will be out of fashion in 10 years or less, and this will rotate until the old fashions become the new ones again. Get clothing that is well made and comfortable for you, or at least the minimum needed for a work situation."

4."The latest tech device. Wait six months, and it will be cheaper. You may not even want it anymore, especially once the hype is over."

TO READ MORE:   https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/older-adults-sharing-purchases-dont-041603795.html

3 Brutal Money Lessons That No One Ever Told You About

3 Brutal Money Lessons That No One Ever Told You About

Heather Altamirano  Sat, November 23, 2024  GOBankingRates

Everyone has to manage bills, household expenses, taxes, and money, yet personal finance isn’t something most people are taught. Financial intelligence learned early can help avoid costly mistakes down the road, but according to Ramsey Solutions, only 26 states require high schoolers to take a course on personal finance to graduate.

Unless there’s someone giving guidance along the way, hard money lessons usually come from trial and error and are often learned too late.

Here are three brutal money lessons that are not talked about enough and how to avoid them.

Spiraling Debt

Americans are racking up more debt than ever. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, consumers collectively owe $1.17 trillion in credit card debt, up 8.1% from last year. Spending can get out of control quickly, and too much debt prevents a comfortable retirement and a strong financial future.

“When you have more debt than you can handle, you often have to tap into your home equity or retirement IRAs to pay off the debt,” said Shelby Rothman, a financial advisor and founder of EnJoy Financial. “Some people are forced to lose their homes or go into bankruptcy, which can cause their credit scores to drop significantly.

 “I’ve seen many people with comfortable wages accrue debt larger than they can handle from buying expensive homes, luxury cars or motor homes. In addition to the debt these items create, they include extra expenses outside of the loan that the budget isn’t prepared for.”

To help avoid this pitfall, live within your means and create a realistic budget that isn’t credit card dependent.

“Understanding the full cost of ownership is the biggest way to prevent debt from mounting. Taking a loan out on an expensive motor home that comes with insurance, maintenance fees, and repairs can cripple your finances,” said Rothman. In addition, she believes it’s vital to plan for unexpected costs and mishaps by at least $1,000.

TO READ MORE:  https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/3-brutal-money-lessons-no-170017457.html

4 Mistakes That Make You Feel Like You’re Living Paycheck to Paycheck

4 Mistakes That Make You Feel Like You’re Living Paycheck to Paycheck, According to Ramit Sethi

Marc Guberti  Fri, November 22, 2024  GOBankingRates

While it’s easy to come across statistics that show how many people are living paycheck to paycheck, Ramit Sethi provides various insights that suggest the opposite. It turns out people are doing better financially than what has been portrayed.

In a recent video, Sethi mentioned research that states 82% of individuals believe their finances are good or very good. Furthermore, the median American household has a $192,900 net worth and $8,000 stored in their checking and savings accounts.

Even with these optimistic data points, many people are still living paycheck to paycheck. Sethi presented common mistakes that make people feel like they have less than they really have. He also highlighted solutions that can help you feel better about your finances.

Lying To Yourself

Sethi started the video by mentioning the difference between not having enough money and making financial decisions. Some people who spend their entire paycheck each week allocate some of their cash toward tuition, a luxury car and other items.

Sethi went on to say that most people’s feelings about money do not match how they spend it. They may not feel like they have enough, but they are deploying their cash toward worthwhile expenses.

The “I Will Teach You To Be Rich” author provides an action step to address each mistake that makes you feel like you are living paycheck to paycheck. For this one, Sethi suggested creating a guilt-free spending account. After accounting for fixed costs, savings and investments, you can set aside some cash that you can spend as you wish.

This approach will allow more people to realize that they are using their hard-earned cash for discretionary expenses, which is a meaningful difference from living paycheck to paycheck.

You Don’t Have a ‘Financial Moat’

A financial moat offers a buffer of safety in case you lose your job. Sethi recommended setting up an emergency fund that covers three to six months of your expenses. For instance, if you spend $3,000 per month, you should build an emergency fund that has $9,000 to $18,000.

It’s important to keep this account separate from your checking and savings accounts. That way, you won’t mix up funds and can keep your finances more organized. Sethi’s action step for this common mistake is to gradually build your emergency savings. Even if you start at just $100 per month in your emergency savings account, it will grow over time. You can also capitalize on a high-yield savings account so your bank does some of the legwork for you.

TO READ MORE:  https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/4-mistakes-feel-living-paycheck-170100438.html

8 Money Moves the Rich Make When Planning a Move

I’m a Financial Expert: 8 Money Moves the Rich Make When Planning a Move

Cindy Lamothe   Wed, November 20, 2024   GOBankingRates

When the wealthy plan a move, it’s not just about packing boxes — it’s a strategic financial event. According to experts, they often engage in meticulous planning to optimize their assets and liabilities during this transition.

GOBankingRates spoke with Dennis Shirshikov, head of growth at GoSummer and professor of finance at City University of New York, and Melanie Musson, finance expert with Insurance Providers, to discuss the money moves the rich make when planning a move.

“When wealthy people plan a move, they hire professional movers to package their items, pack them on a truck and unload them in their new house,” said Musson. “Wealthy people use their money to make updates and upgrades to their new house before they move in. They don’t have the financial constraint of needing to move in right away.”

Building Up Savings First

According to Musson, in advance of moving, wealthy people build their savings, so they can make a down payment and purchase a home without the contingency of selling their current house.

“Even though they’ll usually sell their old house, the need to do so won’t hinder their chances of getting their offer accepted for their new house,” she explained.

Purchasing Custom Furniture

“Wealthy people get custom furniture for their new house,” Musson said. “They don’t try to make their couch and chairs work in a new space.”

Instead, she said they purchase the right size and color to complement the new space.

Tax Optimization Strategies

One of the first steps, according to Shirshikov, is consulting with tax advisors to understand the implications of moving to a new state or country. For example, relocating from a high-tax state like New York to a no-income-tax state like Florida can result in significant savings.

“They might accelerate income or defer deductions to take advantage of more favorable tax rates post-move,” he added.

Reevaluating Investment Portfolios

“Wealthy individuals often reassess their investment portfolios to ensure they align with their new circumstances,” said Shirshikov.

He said this could involve liquidating certain assets or investing in local opportunities.

“I recall a client who, before moving abroad, diversified into international markets to hedge against currency fluctuations,” he said.

TO READ MORE:  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/m-financial-expert-8-money-140044746.html 

BEWARE: Lost Life Savings After Suspected Debit Card Scam

BEWARE: Lost Life Savings After Suspected Debit Card Scam

Danielle Antosz Tue, November 19, 2024  Moneywise

This Long Island man lost his life savings after suspected debit card scam — and got no reimbursement. Here’s why

While running errands in New York last year, Grant Holihan of Long Island received a call from Chase Bank asking him to confirm a recent purchase in Las Vegas. But Holihan, 27, claimed to have never been to Las Vegas. He suspected his debit account and PIN were skimmed at an ATM near his construction job site.

According to Holihan, Chase agreed to close the account — but then more charges followed. In just under an hour, more than $7,000 was drained from his bank account in separate transactions on the other side of the country. Ultimately, his entire life savings was stolen in less than a day.

Now, Holihan says Chase is still refusing to refund his money.

“I’ve never given my PIN out," Holihan told CBS New York. “They still deny my claim, and it's been over a year later, and I still haven't seen my money."

With no resolution in sight, it’s important to understand how this was able to happen and what can be done to avoid a similar financial loss.

How Does Debit Skimming Work?

In debit card skimming, fraudsters secretly install devices on ATMs or payment terminals to steal card details and PIN information. The skimmers capture data while a hidden camera or keypad overlay records the user’s PIN. In most cases, these devices are difficult for people to see because they look like legitimate card readers.

Holihan suspects that is exactly what happened to him.

"This customer's claim was denied because the charges were authorized with their PIN and verified via phone call," JPMorganChase told CBS News New York.

Unlike credit card skimming, where thieves steal credit card numbers, debit card fraud doesn't fall under the Truth in Lending Act, which offers more consumer protections. While speaking with CBS reporter Elle McLogan, National Consumer Law Center senior attorney Carla Sanchez-Adams shared how that impacts consumers.

https://news.yahoo.com/news/finance/news/long-island-man-lost-life-110300580.html

What’s up with Buffett and his $325 Billion Pile of Cash?

What’s up with Buffett and his $325 Billion Pile of Cash?

November 20, 2024 Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)

Much has been written about Warren Buffett having sold a substantial amount of stocks. And his company, Berkshire Hathaway, is sitting on a record $325 billion cash pile as a result.

Buffett has often said that his preferred holding period for an investment is "forever". So the fact that he has sold so much stock has many observers proclaiming that "Buffett is predicting an imminent stock market crash."

Except that he's not. Buffett is a pretty transparent guy who has never been afraid to speak his mind. If he were predicting a crash, he'd probably say it.

Besides, Buffett has sold plenty of stocks in the past; this is not an anomaly. In 2022 and 2023, for example, he dumped shares of Chevron, Activision Blizzard, Taiwan Semiconductor, and HP.

This time around he sold off some shares in Apple and Bank of America. But he actually explained WHY-- especially with Apple. And I think his reasoning is worth mentioning.

Buffett explained to a reporter that "We don’t mind paying taxes at Berkshire. And we are paying a 21% federal rate,” which amounted to $5 billion last year.

But he continued, saying that the US federal corporate tax rate "was 35% not long ago, and it’s been 52% in the past. . . With the present fiscal policies, I think that something has to give, and I think that higher taxes are quite likely," i.e. that the government will take "a greater share of your income, or mine, or Berkshire's."

"So if I’m [selling Apple stock] at 21% [tax rates] this year, and we’re doing it at a lot higher percentage later on, I don’t think [shareholders] will actually mind that we sold a little Apple this year.”

This is a critical takeaway.

Nations with enormous debts and deficits can’t live beyond their means forever; Buffett isn't predicting a market crash-- he's predicting higher taxes... that, sooner or later, the federal government is going to have a take a much bigger bite out of people's paychecks.

As I've written before, there's a chance that Buffett's prediction might be wrong. It IS still possible for the US to get back on the right track-- a combination of government efficiency, spending cuts, de-regulation, and a technology (AI) fueled productivity boom could generate such an economic boom that the country COULD grow its way out of debt without having to resort to higher taxes (or inflation).

But the new administration will have to get moving immediately. Otherwise, Buffett will be proven right: higher taxes will be inevitable.

His decision to sell Bank of America stock is even more obvious and also bears mentioning. Quite simply, Bank of America is in deep trouble.

You probably recall how the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates all the way down to zero during the pandemic. It was ridiculous-- the US government was able to sell Ten Year notes with a yield of less than 0.4%.

Talk about a ******* deal. The largest debtor in the history of the world was selling bonds with such a pitiful yield that they didn't even keep up with inflation. Who would be such an idiot to buy such a terrible asset?

Bank of America, that's who. In fact, Bank of America invested hundreds of billions of dollars of their depositors' savings in these terrible assets.

Well, now that interest rates are literally more than 10x higher (from 0.4% to more than 4%), those same bonds that Bank of America bought back in 2020 and 2021 have lost a TON of money. BofA is sitting on more than $100 BILLION in unrealized losses from their bond portfolio.

Remember, this is the same reason that Silicon Valley Bank (among others) went bust last year-- the bonds they bought during the pandemic lost a ton of value, and the bank was wiped out. Bank of America is in a similar position now.

The key difference is that Bank of America has enough capital on its balance sheet to sustain those losses. So they might not be wiped out or fail. But the implications for shareholders are pretty bad.

Whenever a bank gets into trouble, the first thing that happens is the regulators step in and start making a bunch of demands. In this case, the FDIC and Fed will probably force Bank of America to raise more capital.

This will have the effect of severely diluting existing Bank of America shareholders... which most investors, especially Buffett, absolutely HATE.

The second thing that regulators always do with troubled banks is force them to suspend their dividend. And dividends are among the top reasons why Buffett likes to hold companies "forever". So given the likely prospect of zero dividends and heavily diluted shares, it looks like Buffett is getting out before regulators drop the hammer on Bank of America.

This is a big difference from "Buffett predicting a crash" as so many headlines across the Internet have been suggesting.

That said, the US stock market in general is definitely looking very expensive and near historically high valuations once again.

But there's at least one sector that's still cheap: real assets.

I've been writing for most of the past two years that real assets make a lot of sense to own, especially during inflationary times. Real assets were THE asset class to own during the 1970s stagflation.

The US is currently on the same path-- with its national debt constantly surging to new record highs (now $36 trillion), suggesting that another bout of nasty inflation could be in order down the road.

But, again, there's now a reasonable chance that the new administration is able to get the nation's finances on the right track... potentially forestalling an inflation spike and debt crisis.

So do real assets still make sense?

For now, yes. Natural gas is a great example-- as I've explained before, US natural gas is still incredibly cheap. And any American energy renaissance will depend heavily on natural gas. Prices could surge as a result, and natural gas producers could boom. Yet many companies' shares are still available for peanuts.

Bottom line, it still makes sense to consider fantastic real asset producers-- especially when they are profitable, low-debt, dividend-paying businesses that trade at absurdly low valuations.

To your freedom,   James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/whats-up-with-buffett-and-his-325-billion-pile-of-cash-151751/

If You Think Bitcoin Is On Fire, Just Wait For The Natural Gas Boom

If You Think Bitcoin Is On Fire, Just Wait For The Natural Gas Boom

November 12, 2024 Notes from the Field By James Hickman / Simon Black

“Wow, these guys are going to be in for a rude wakening about how much power is going to be available. . .” thought Joe Dominguez, CEO of Constellation Energy.

Dominguez was one of the attendees last May at a private, invitation-only gathering of energy and tech company CEOs held at Microsoft’s headquarters. The whole point was to talk about power.

Everyone already knew that AI was consuming a lot of electricity, and they assumed this demand would grow. A lot. But they didn’t realize by quite how much until OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman told the group that just a single AI model will require as much power as a large city.

Again, that’s just ONE model. And there are plenty of them out there-- Google Gemini, OpenAI, Meta AI, etc. Every major tech company-- not to mention plenty of startups-- have developed or are developing power-hungry AI models.

In terms of energy demand and power consumption, AI will be the equivalent of adding several states to the US over the next few years. And America’s power grid simply doesn’t have the capacity.

Joe Dominguez understood that immediately… which is why his company teamed up with Microsoft to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear power station in Pennsylvania.

But one additional nuclear power plant is barely going to move the needle on America’s energy needs… and it takes way too much time to build new ones.

In fact, the most recent nuclear power facility to come online in the US took more than a decade to build. So even if the industry gets started today (which they won’t), and the permitting process were quick and easy (which it won’t be), nuclear power is still a long way out.

But there’s an easier option for the here and now: natural gas.

I’ve written about this before-- US natural gas is absurdly cheap, especially compared to global prices. That’s because there’s just so damn much of it in the US… combined with the fact that natural gas is complicated to transport.

Oil is simple. Tanker ships crisscross the planet transporting crude from country to country, so the global price for oil is similar everywhere.

But it’s not that way with gas. Natural gas has to first be decontaminated of various impurities at the wellhead in order to be transported in ‘dry’ form through pipelines, then stored underground.

At the moment there is no trans-Atlantic pipeline allowing US natural gas to flow to Europe. And building one would take years if not decades.

That’s why there’s such a tremendous price difference in natural gas between the United States and Europe. The US produces oceans of it but hardly uses it, hence a cheap price. Europe barely produces any but consumes it voraciously, so the price is more than 4x higher.

If only there were a readily available way to transport natural gas across the Atlantic… then US producers would be able to export to Europe. Natural gas would be more like oil-- a global commodity whose price is more or less the same around the world. And the US price would surge.

Well, there actually is a way to do that. Natural gas can be liquefied into a condensed form (about 1/600th of the gaseous volume) and transported at -163C.

Obviously, there’s a cost to liquefying and transporting gas. But a US producer can still make so much more money selling gas to Europe-- even after the additional costs are included.

And this started to happen around 2017; US producers began liquefying their natural gas and exporting to Europe in major quantities. Within a few years, LNG exports were booming.

But then, earlier this year, Joe Biden bowed to the climate fanatics and ordered his Department of Energy to cease issuing permits for new LNG export terminals… essentially shutting down export growth.

It’s safe to expect a totally different policy starting in January, i.e. more US natural gas will flow to Europe. That means less supply in the US. Natural gas prices will rise as a result… and probably by a LOT.

But don’t forget about AI.

Let’s first think about different ways to generate electricity and the types of fuels that are available.

There’s solar and wind, for example. The prices of solar panels in particular… and wind turbines to a degree, are both falling. In large part this is because the Chinese Communist Party heavily subsidizes its domestic solar panel industry.

So, wind and solar are somewhat price competitive. But they carry a security risk: do you really want China manufacturing your entire power grid? Is it possible they built a kill switch in their software?

More importantly, they’re not terribly reliable. There are times (like night!) when the sun doesn’t shine. Germany (which generates nearly 60% of its power from renewable energy) recently experienced yet another dunkelflaute, i.e. a foggy, doldrum period in which there is neither sunshine nor wind.

This doesn’t work for AI. Tech companies need reliability.

Then there’s coal… which is super reliable, not to mention cheap and efficient. But it’s one of the dirtiest fuels known to man. Google won’t get its hands dirty with that one.

Tech companies love nuclear. They understand it is, by far, the most efficient form of energy known to man. But again, new reactors are 10+ years away. AI needs power now.

And that pretty much leaves natural gas. The US has oceans of it and barely uses a fraction of its supply. It’s absurdly cheap. In fact, according to the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory, natural gas is THE cheapest fuel source per MW of electrical capacity.

It’s the cleanest of all the conventional sources. Plus, you can construct a new facility in about two years… so new power can come online quickly. And the Big Tech companies have demonstrated that they are more than willing to shell out the cash needed to finance natural gas power plants.

Between these two trends: AI power demand, and the upcoming export boom, natural gas prices are probably going to soar.

We’ve just watched the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise by 7% to an all-time high in the last week. Bitcoin has surged by more than 30% to its all-time high.

That’s nothing compared to what we could see in the natural gas price.

It’s obviously not going to happen in a week, these trends will take longer to unfold. But it’s definitely a good time to look at some of the extremely undervalued natural gas producers whose profits will boom.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/if-you-think-bitcoin-is-on-fire-just-wait-for-the-natural-gas-boom-151726/

What About Gold?

What About Gold?

November 18, 2024  Notes From the Field – James Hickman/ Simon Black/ Sovereign Man

It was early January 2020, and weird things were happening in the world.

Socialism was on the march in the Land of the Free. Conflict, it seemed, was exploding everywhere, both abroad (North Korea, Iran, Yemen) and at home.

And most notably, over in China, the Communist government was literally welding people into their homes to ‘keep them safe’ from a bizarre virus that was spreading rapidly

It was only January, but 2020 was already looking pretty uncertain.

I wrote an article about preparing for uncertainty. And, with respect to finance, I wrote that gold was a very sensible asset to own in such times: “Frankly I don’t think anyone can credibly say that they have any idea what’s going to happen in the world in 2020. And that’s why I own gold.”

We soon found out. One of the most ridiculous hysterias in human history gripped the world. Countries were locked down. Governments and central banks conjured trillions of dollars out of thin air to pay people to stay home and not work.

Three months later, in mid-April, I wrote again that the Fed’s virtually unlimited money printing was going to be “very inflationary” and encouraged readers to consider gold once again (along with other real assets).

Quite predictably, the price of gold shot up, from $1560 in early January, to $1720 in April, to nearly $2000 in August.

At that point there was a lot of fickle, speculative capital flowing into the gold market. Gold ETFs were receiving huge inflows, pushing the price to (what was then) an all-time high.

So I wrote to our audience again on August 3rd stating that, “a short-term correction may be in order” for gold. The price peaked three days later, and then fell be several hundred dollars per ounce.

I started writing about gold again in earnest back in early 2023, a few months after the price had bottomed out. The fiscal trajectory of the United States under Joe Biden was painfully obvious at that point. The national debt was growing at an unprecedented peace-time pace, and other nations were lining up against the dollar as the global reserve currency.

Gold was a smart move. And by the end of the year I concluded that “we could easily see central banks around the world ditching their US dollars and loading up on gold as part of a new, de-dollarized global financial system.”

And that’s what started happening: fed up with dollar inflation, US government dysfunction, and America’s gargantuan national debt, foreign central banks began trading their dollars for gold.

THE GOLD PRICE SOARED AS A RESULT

Even in March of this year, when gold was at its all time high of the time at $2,150, I wrote that gold was actually a contrarian investment with a lot more room to rise.

It went all the way up to almost $2,800.

Now, I’m not citing my own work to be boastful. Trust me, I’ve gotten plenty of things wrong.

My point is to illustrate that I AM NOT A GOLD BUG. I don’t hold a fanatical view about gold that it’s the only thing worth owning and is only going to go up.

Furthermore, I don’t think about gold strictly in terms of price; that’s way too one-dimensional.

Gold is a great insurance policy. It’s a hedge against systemic risks. It’s great for estate planning and asset protection. It holds its value over inflation over long periods of time. And, sometimes, it can also be a fantastic speculation.

The above examples demonstrate that I’m not shy about saying whether I think gold has been overbought, is too expensive, or too cheap. My assessment obviously changes when the information changes.

Right now one thing is clear: foreign central banks were the ones responsible for driving the price of gold to all-time highs throughout 2024, just as I suggested would be the case in 2023.

And that was happening at a time when most individual investors (plus ‘smart money’ hedge funds) were actually selling gold. So they were missing out on the boom.

But that started to change over the past few months.

Data from Gold ETFs around the world show that individual investors have been buying tons of gold. Problem is— that money tends to be very short-term... and fickle.

We can already see it; a lot of those same small investors have already yanked their money out of gold after the US election, which is why the price is down about 10% from its record high.

But, again, the real long-term driver of gold demand is central banks. And I think a lot of foreign central banks are sitting on the sidelines right now.

With gold already near its all-time high, they have paused their buying spree, and they’re now looking at this incoming administration to see what happens next.

Can Elon trim the federal budget? Will there be a US energy renaissance or AI-fueled productivity bonanza? Will the government become functional once again? Will America’s unparalleled military superiority be restored? Will sensible monetary policy reign in inflation?

Because if those things actually happen, then the dollar has a pretty good shot of continuing its reign as the dominant global reserve currency.

And I think a lot of central banks that have been buying so much gold are happy to wait for the next several months to see what happens. Hence gold could easily trade sideways for a while, or even fall.

All that said, gold is still worth owning... because there’s still long-term risk to the US and to the dollar.

Vladimir Putin recently made some comments that a lot of folks misinterpreted as “Russia and the BRICS nations will keep using the dollar. . .”

But that’s not what Putin said.

Putin said it was the US government’s weaponization of the dollar that pushed Russia and the BRICs nations away. And as long as that threat remains, the BRICS+ bloc is plowing ahead with developing an alternate financial system.

Many large economies have already started trading with one another in a currency other than the US dollar. And that trend is likely to continue, i.e. the dollar is going to have competition.

Not to mention, there’s still a ton of uncertainty in the world. The national debt is still way too high. The Leftists still want to storm to power and Make America California. Conflict might still break out.

hese are all sensible reasons to own some gold.

But given that the key driver of the gold price, i.e. central banks, are probably going to sit on the sidelines over the next few months, I wouldn’t be buying right now on the expectation of a short-term price surge.

To your freedom,   James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/what-about-gold-151745/