13 Habits of Highly Effective Risk-Takers
13 Habits of Highly Effective Risk-Takers
By Nate Silver GEAR Newsletter DEC 19, 2024 4:00 AM
From poker players to venture capitalists, there’s a mindset to making the most of opportunities, and engineering the odds of success.
I played poker professionally before I ever wrote about politics or built an election model. What really fascinates me about gambling is the mindset that drives this behavior—a way of thinking that unites a cohort I call “the River.”
The River is a sprawling ecosystem of like-minded people that includes everyone from low-stakes poker pros to crypto kings and VC billionaires.
13 Habits of Highly Effective Risk-Takers
By Nate Silver GEAR Newsletter DEC 19, 2024 4:00 AM
From poker players to venture capitalists, there’s a mindset to making the most of opportunities, and engineering the odds of success.
I played poker professionally before I ever wrote about politics or built an election model. What really fascinates me about gambling is the mindset that drives this behavior—a way of thinking that unites a cohort I call “the River.”
The River is a sprawling ecosystem of like-minded people that includes everyone from low-stakes poker pros to crypto kings and VC billionaires.
It is a way of thinking—analytical, abstract, competitive, contrarian—and a mode of life. Most “Riverians” aren’t rich and powerful, but rich and powerful people are disproportionately likely to be Riverians.
I call the following the “13 Habits of Highly Effective Risk-Takers.” The quantitative risk-takers of the River and those who take physical risks—astronauts, deep-sea explorers, NFL players—have these traits in common. Based on my research, I hold the view that there is something hardwired in people who seek out risk and wrangle it successfully. How many do you share with them?
Successful Risk-Takers Are Cool Under Pressure
Being calm when other people lose their shit is a rare quality—and one that’s essential for a winning gambler. It doesn’t matter how well you execute in everyday situations—you’ll never reach the top of your craft if you choke when the pressure is on.
They Have Courage
In poker and sports betting, the vast majority of players lose money. To be at the very top requires a careful balance. Overconfidence can be deadly in gambling, but playing poker against the best is not for the faint of heart.
They Have Strategic Empathy
They put themselves in their opponent’s shoes—but don’t mistake this for the touchy-feely kind of empathy. In psychological studies, there’s a negative correlation between systematic thinking—what Riverians are skilled at—and empathetic behavior. Strategic empathy comes up a lot in poker—which is very much both a mathematical game and a people game.
They Are Process Oriented, Not Results Oriented
They play the long game. “Don’t be results oriented” is a mantra ingrained in many poker players. Yes, in the long run, results are what count, but one good thing about the River is that our compensation ultimately depends on objective measures.
TO READ MORE: LINK
How Homebuyers Can Stay Safe In 2025
How Homebuyers Can Stay Safe In 2025
Danielle Antosz Wed, December 18, 2024 Moneywise
West Virginia couple loses $255K, life savings in real estate scam — how homebuyers can stay safe in 2025
After months of house-hunting, Raegan Bartlo and her husband finally found their dream home in a small West Virginia community just a few hours from Washington, D.C.
But that dream became a nightmare as a few days before the closing, Bartlo received an email she thought was from her title company. The email provided instructions on how to wire the money for closing. She wired the $255,000 down payment as per the email’s directions, ABC 7 reported.
How Homebuyers Can Stay Safe In 2025
Danielle Antosz Wed, December 18, 2024 Moneywise
West Virginia couple loses $255K, life savings in real estate scam — how homebuyers can stay safe in 2025
After months of house-hunting, Raegan Bartlo and her husband finally found their dream home in a small West Virginia community just a few hours from Washington, D.C.
But that dream became a nightmare as a few days before the closing, Bartlo received an email she thought was from her title company. The email provided instructions on how to wire the money for closing. She wired the $255,000 down payment as per the email’s directions, ABC 7 reported.
On closing day, she received another email saying her closing time had been moved. When she called her realtor to ask about the change, she received devastating news. The first email wasn't from her title company — and that $255,000 down payment was now gone.
"At that point, my whole world fell apart because I had already wired all of the down payment money for our house,” Bartlo told ABC 7 News. “And that was about $255,000. And so our nest egg, our savings, everything at that moment was gone."
Wiring fraud is becoming an increasing issue
Bartlo was a victim of real estate wiring fraud. This happens when scammers gain access to the email of a title company, mortgage company or realtor. They can see you're due to send a large payment, so they email you to provide wiring instructions. However, those funds go to the scammer's account.
“I just remember shaking a lot and not being able to think straight. To feel like everything you had saved for to be able to have financial stability was just taken,” Bartlo shared with ABC 7. “And what if I didn't have a house? My mother lives with us. Where was she going to go? What were we going to do?”
It's a story that Tom Cronkright, founder of CertifiED, a company that helps prevent wire fraud, said he hears every day. He started his company in 2015 after he lost $180,000 to a wire fraud scam.
“I see it happen daily, if not multiple times a day," he told ABC 7. "The reality of it is these are some of the most sophisticated bad actors that have invested hundreds of millions of dollars into their own tradecraft.”
According to Cronkright, huge, global crime syndicates and cartels are often behind these scams. They hack into banks, real estate companies and law firms to gain information they can use to impersonate a trusted company or person. With that information in hand, they're able to send realistic-looking emails that consumers often don't question.
“The email, that includes the payment request with wiring instructions, isn’t coming out of the blue, it's tacked on to a thread of emails that they've been having for two, three, four weeks,” said Cronkright. “And now they're just saying, ‘Well, instead of bringing a check tomorrow for closing, we need you to send a wire, and here's why’."
Cronkright estimates losses to wiring fraud are close to $5 billion a year. His company has partnered with federal law enforcement to help educate consumers and businesses about the signs of wire fraud scams. But getting the money back is often unsuccessful. To protect themselves, consumers need to know how to spot the signs of wire fraud.
How to protect yourself from real estate wire fraud
TO READ MORE: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/west-virginia-couple-loses-255k-114100120.html
The Fed Saves Its Own XXX at Your Expense
The Fed Saves Its Own XXX at Your Expense
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) December 19, 2024
Marco Polo never actually set foot on Japanese soil. But that didn’t stop him from writing the most wildly exaggerated tales about the immense, incredible wealth of Japan-- which he called Cipangu.
Supposedly Marco Polo had spoken to merchants and traders who’d been there, but it’s entirely possible he made it all up—typical for Marco Polo and his tall tales.
Nevertheless, about a century and a half later, a young Italian sailor devoured Polo’s writings and became convinced he had to lead an expedition to Cipangu and exploit the unimaginable wealth described in Polo’s stories.
The Fed Saves Its Own XXX at Your Expense
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) December 19, 2024
Marco Polo never actually set foot on Japanese soil. But that didn’t stop him from writing the most wildly exaggerated tales about the immense, incredible wealth of Japan-- which he called Cipangu.
Supposedly Marco Polo had spoken to merchants and traders who’d been there, but it’s entirely possible he made it all up—typical for Marco Polo and his tall tales.
Nevertheless, about a century and a half later, a young Italian sailor devoured Polo’s writings and became convinced he had to lead an expedition to Cipangu and exploit the unimaginable wealth described in Polo’s stories.
That sailor, of course, was Christopher Columbus. After years of struggling to secure the necessary investment, he finally set sail in 1492. When he landed in Hispaniola, he thought he’d found Asia.
The local chieftain greeted Columbus with gold. So Columbus, channeling his inner Marco Polo, sent a letter home in the spring of 1493 describing the incredible wealth and gold riches of the discovered island.
Word spread quickly—well, as quickly as could be expected in the 15th century. But eventually, other explorers mounted their own expeditions.
In 1521, Hernán Cortés sent gold and silver from Mexico back to Europe, which arrived in Brussels that August. The artist Albrecht Dürer, traveling through Brussels at the time, described the gold pieces as big as the sun, and the silver as big as the moon.
Ten years later, in 1532, Francisco Pizarro ambushed the Incan Emperor, Atahualpa, who had to pay a literal king’s ransom in silver and gold.
Before long, mines across Latin America were producing vast amounts of precious metals, and Spanish treasure ships were crisscrossing the Atlantic, transporting gold and silver back to Europe.
The King of Spain couldn’t believe his newfound wealth. But there was a side effect.
All this new gold and silver flowed into the Spanish economy (and also the economies of other European kingdoms). Yet farmers were growing the same amount of food. Artisans were making the same number of shoes, hats, and clothes.
In short, the supply of goods and services in Europe remained unchanged, yet the supply of money circulating in the economy increased dramatically.
The natural consequence was a bout of inflation that lasted more than a century. Economic historians refer to this period as the “Great Inflation” or sometimes “Price Revolution”.
It’s extraordinary that modern-day “experts” can’t seem to figure out this basic principle.
During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve increased the money supply by trillions of dollars, practically doubling the size of its balance sheet almost overnight in early 2020.
And unlike the Spanish in the 1500s, the Fed didn’t have to mine any gold and silver-- they just push some buttons, and, poof, trillions of dollars of new money.
At the same time, though, throughout 2020-2021, people were told to stay home, cower in fear, and NOT work. This resulted in a DECLINE in goods and services in the economy.
In short-- the supply of money increased dramatically, while the supply of goods and services decreased. The result? Inflation. And the problem still hasn’t been fixed.
The Fed has been playing the ‘hero’ role for most of this year, acting as if they saved the economy and slayed the evil inflation monster once and for all.
Well, the most recent inflation report finally put an end to their hubris. Inflation is up, and even the Fed can’t deny it any longer.
Bizarrely, at this week’s policy meeting, the Fed decided to CUT interest rates... which is pretty much the opposite of what a central bank is supposed to do when battling inflation.
But we’ve already discussed why they’re doing this:: the Fed is saving its own ass at your expense.
Throughout the pandemic, the Fed used its trillions of dollars of newly-created money to buy US government bonds at a time when interest rates were at all-time record lows (i.e. bond prices were at record highs).
But then interest rates rose significantly in 2022, so the value of the Fed’s bonds plummeted. As a result, the Fed’s losses now exceed $800 billion, making it the most insolvent bank in the history of the world.
It’s crazy to think that the most systemically important bank on the planet is insolvent. But that’s the truth.
The only way for the Fed to become solvent again is to inflate the value of its bond portfolio, which means cutting interest rates—even though this won’t arrest inflation and risks making it worse.
Bear in mind, these people failed to anticipate the consequences of printing trillions of dollars and slashing interest rates to zero back in 2020. They failed to notice inflation when it was obvious in 2021. They called it “transitory.” They failed to act.
And when they finally did act in 2022—far too late—they failed to anticipate the consequences of their rate hikes, including the bank failures we saw in 2023.
Now inflation is rising again, but they’re cutting rates. Totally backward policy. It’s sort of like how Congress tries to spend and borrow its way out of debt.
Sure, these people at the Fed are human beings. They’re fallible and will make mistakes just like anyone else. Yet they’ve been so consistently wrong on just about everything... while at the same time their mistakes affect the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people.
What’s really strange is that this system is completely involuntary. Everyone alive is substantially affected by the Fed’s decisions, but we don’t elect Fed leaders. Only a handful are even appointed by the President. The rest are appointed by commercial banks like Citibank and Bank of America, which technically “own” the Fed.
For a country that claims to be a beacon of representative democracy, it’s crazy that the people who have the most influence over our financial lives are unelected “experts” who have been consistently and woefully wrong at almost every turn.
To your freedom, James Hickman Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC
https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/the-fed-saves-its-own-ass-at-your-expense-151918/
Cliff-side Villa - $10M In The Bank — With No Heirs. Who Should Get My Fortune?
I’m 79, Live In A Cliffside Villa In California And Have $10M In The Bank — With No Heirs. Who Should Get My Fortune?
Christy Bieber Tue, December 17, 2024 Moneywise
A 79-year-old in a villa with $10 million in the bank has a very large potential legacy to leave — but what if there's no obvious person to leave it to?
In His Situation, You Must Take Action.
You need to make an estate plan. Otherwise, default intestacy laws apply. These kick in when someone dies without a will. The law dictates who will inherit, starting with closest relatives and proceeding to more distant relations. However, if no relatives are found, the funds could go to the state.
I’m 79, Live In A Cliff-side Villa In California And Have $10M In The Bank — With No Heirs. Who Should Get My Fortune?
Christy Bieber Tue, December 17, 2024 Moneywise
A 79-year-old in a villa with $10 million in the bank has a very large potential legacy to leave — but what if there's no obvious person to leave it to?
In His Situation, You Must Take Action.
You need to make an estate plan. Otherwise, default intestacy laws apply. These kick in when someone dies without a will. The law dictates who will inherit, starting with closest relatives and proceeding to more distant relations. However, if no relatives are found, the funds could go to the state.
So how to find a place to leave $10 million after you’re gone? It’s a good problem to have. Read on to find out some potential solutions.
Why wait until you die?
First things first: Remember you do not have to wait until you die to give money away.
Of course, you’ll want to make sure you have plenty of funds to live on and cover medical costs that could climb as you get older. However, $10 million plus a cliffside villa means you have more than enough to provide for yourself for the rest of your life.
Rather than waiting until you pass on, why not do something with that cash now? If you have the interest, time and desire, you could start a charitable foundation of your own. Or you could do things like arrange a scholarship fund with your alma mater, fund a project for a cause you care about, or do anything else you desire.
With a fortune as large as yours, you could contribute an endowment fund to a university, arts organization, research center or other institution. That would allow your investment to grow over time and continually be put back into the community in perpetuity.
Giving a gift to a charity now rather than after you die would allow you to see the benefits of your contributions in real time. That could be one of the best uses of your funds.
Read more: I'm 49 years old and have nothing saved for retirement — what should I do? Don't panic. Here are 3 of the easiest ways you can catch up (and fast)
Use The Right Estate Planning Tools
Whether or not you decide to give away some cash before you die, the fact remains that you're likely to still pass on with a lot of money left over. If that's the case, working with an estate planning lawyer to decide what to do with it is likely the best move.
TO READ MORE: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/m-79-live-cliffside-villa-114400951.html
AI Voice Scams Are On The Rise. Here's How To Protect Yourself
AI Voice Scams Are On The Rise. Here's How To Protect Yourself
Megan Cerullo Updated Tue, December 17, 2024 CBS News
Artificial intelligence-enabled voice cloning tools have made it easier for criminals to mimic strangers' voices and dupe victims into handing over large sums of money.
For example, a scammer might target a victim posing as their grandchild and claiming they require cash — fast. Older people who might not be as familiar with new technologies such as AI can be particularly susceptible to these types of scams, particularly when the caller on the other line sounds identical to a loved one. Phone numbers also can be spoofed to mimic those of callers known to the target of voice cloning scams.
AI Voice Scams Are On The Rise. Here's How To Protect Yourself
Megan Cerullo Updated Tue, December 17, 2024 CBS News
Artificial intelligence-enabled voice cloning tools have made it easier for criminals to mimic strangers' voices and dupe victims into handing over large sums of money.
For example, a scammer might target a victim posing as their grandchild and claiming they require cash — fast. Older people who might not be as familiar with new technologies such as AI can be particularly susceptible to these types of scams, particularly when the caller on the other line sounds identical to a loved one. Phone numbers also can be spoofed to mimic those of callers known to the target of voice cloning scams.
n 2023, senior citizens were conned out of roughly $3.4 billion in a range of financial crimes, according to the FBI data. The agency recently warned that AI has increased the "believability" or criminal scams given that they "assist with content creation and can correct for human errors that might otherwise serve as warning signs of fraud."
Also commonly known as "grandparent scams," a fraudster will impersonate an individual's loved one and claim they are in trouble, or need cash immediately for some sort of emergency.
"So much of it is based on psychology and hacking the limbic system," Chuck Herrin, field chief information security officer for F5, a security and fraud prevention firm, told CBS MoneyWatch. "They say things that trigger a fear-based emotional response because they know when humans get afraid, we get stupid and don't exercise the best judgment."
How To Create A Family Safe Word
The good news? Cybersecurity experts and law enforcement officials have a simple, but effective, recommendation for avoiding getting victimized by such scams: creating a family "safe word," along with a protocol for verifying a family member or loved one's identity.
That means choosing a word or phrase that can't be easily guessed. Obvious identifiers like a street name, alma mater or other information that may be readily available online are ill-advised, experts say.
"It needs to be unique and should be something that's difficult to guess," James Scobey, chief information security officer at Keeper Security told CBS MoneyWatch. "It shouldn't be something that can be researched online about you or your family. Avoid street names, towns, phone numbers and individual names as part of a pass phrase."
TO READ MORE: https://www.yahoo.com/news/ai-voice-scams-rise-heres-211554124.html
Kiyosaki Warns That Boomers Will Be The Losers Once The ‘Biggest Crash In History’ Comes
Kiyosaki Warns That Boomers Will Be The Losers Once The ‘Biggest Crash In History’ Comes
Jing Pan Sun, December 15, 2024 Moneywise
The U.S. stock market has seen clear sailing in 2024, with the S&P 500 up an impressive 28% year-to-date, but Rich Dad, Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki sees dark clouds on the horizon — and when the storm hits, it’s the one generation that will feel the brunt of it.
“BOOMERS are SOL: When the stock market bursts … BOOMERS will be BIGGEST LOSERS,” Kiyosaki posted on X.
As a boomer himself, he acknowledged that his generation has been lucky. Data supports that claim, with reports showing that Baby Boomers are likely the wealthiest generation that has ever lived.
Kiyosaki Warns That Boomers Will Be The Losers Once The ‘Biggest Crash In History’ Comes
Jing Pan Sun, December 15, 2024 Moneywise
The U.S. stock market has seen clear sailing in 2024, with the S&P 500 up an impressive 28% year-to-date, but Rich Dad, Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki sees dark clouds on the horizon — and when the storm hits, it’s the one generation that will feel the brunt of it.
“BOOMERS are SOL: When the stock market bursts … BOOMERS will be BIGGEST LOSERS,” Kiyosaki posted on X.
As a boomer himself, he acknowledged that his generation has been lucky. Data supports that claim, with reports showing that Baby Boomers are likely the wealthiest generation that has ever lived.
But that streak of fortune won’t last forever, he warned. “The biggest CRASH in history is coming. Please be proactive and get rich … before the BOOMER’s go BUST.”
So, how can people prepare? Kiyosaki offered some sage advice.
“If I were a child of a BOOMER … I would nudge my parents to sell their home, stocks, and bonds now … while prices are high … before the CRASH that is coming … and buy gold, silver, and Bitcoin now … before your BOOMER mom and dad move in with you … or expect you to pay for their rising healthcare or funeral costs.”
Precious metals
Kiyosaki’s recommendation to invest in silver and gold is hardly surprising — he has been a vocal proponent of precious metals for decades.
In October 2023, Kiyosaki predicted, “Gold will soon break through $2,100 and then take off. You will wish you had bought gold below $2,000. Next stop gold $3,700.”
That forecast has gained traction. Gold prices surged in 2024, now standing at about $2,700 per ounce.
Silver and gold have long been considered popular hedges against inflation. The reason is simple: central banks can’t print precious metals in unlimited quantities like fiat money.
Kiyosaki revealed that he has been purchasing gold and silver mines since 1985 and now he “literally owns tons of gold and silver.”
These days, there are many ways to gain exposure to gold. You can own bullion, buy shares of gold mining companies or ETFs, or even tap into potential tax advantages with a gold IRA.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has been another standout performer in 2024, rising approximately 128% year-to-date.
TO READ MORE: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/kiyosaki-warns-boomers-losers-once-113300030.html
Think You're Safe? Identity Theft Could Wipe Out Your Entire Life’s Savings
Think You're Safe? Identity Theft Could Wipe Out Your Entire Life’s Savings
Kurt Knutsson, CyberGuy Report Fri, December 13, 2024
Identity theft has become a pervasive issue, affecting millions of Americans each year. In 2023 alone, American adults lost a staggering $43 billion to identity fraud. The following story illustrates the devastating impact this crime can have on individuals:
Paula Disberry, a former Colgate-Palmolive employee, was living a comfortable life when she discovered that her 401(k) account had been drained of $750,000. The shock came when she tried to access her account online, only to find it blocked.
Think You're Safe? Identity Theft Could Wipe Out Your Entire Life’s Savings
Kurt Knutsson, CyberGuy Report Fri, December 13, 2024
Identity theft has become a pervasive issue, affecting millions of Americans each year. In 2023 alone, American adults lost a staggering $43 billion to identity fraud. The following story illustrates the devastating impact this crime can have on individuals:
Paula Disberry, a former Colgate-Palmolive employee, was living a comfortable life when she discovered that her 401(k) account had been drained of $750,000. The shock came when she tried to access her account online, only to find it blocked.
A fraudster had impersonated her, changing her contact details and withdrawing her entire retirement savings in a single transaction. Stories like this of financial identity theft are becoming all too common. If you live in the U.S., you’ve likely already encountered one, or worse, experienced it firsthand.
The FBI's Internet Crime Report for 2023 reveals that adults 60 and above accounted for 24.08% of all identity theft claims and suffered 41.46% of the total financial losses. While they may not face a higher risk of becoming victims, the financial toll is significantly greater than any other age group. Older adults, especially those over 60, often feel the impact more deeply. Why? They typically have more assets than younger individuals and are less likely to monitor their bank accounts daily.
Identity theft has been a concern for centuries, with one of the most famous historical impostors being Frank Abagnale Jr. Abagnale claims to have successfully impersonated various professionals in the 1960s, including a Pan Am pilot and a doctor, forging checks and documents to amass a small fortune. His alleged exploits were so notorious that they inspired the film "Catch Me If You Can."
While Abagnale's story is a dramatic example, modern identity theft has evolved into a more pervasive threat, particularly with the rise of digital technology.
The widespread availability of personal information on the web, combined with a lack of regulation preventing companies from collecting data without consent, has made it easier for criminals to exploit personal data. The scale is massive, and the impact can severely disrupt your life and that of your family.
TO READ MORE: https://www.yahoo.com/tech/think-youre-safe-identity-theft-150050449.html
The Most Insolvent Bank In The History Of The World Is. …..
The Most Insolvent Bank In The History Of The World Is. …..
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) December 12, 2024
As the 1800s came to a close and the world propelled itself full of innovation and optimism into the 20th century, there was perhaps nowhere else on the planet more admired and envied (except for the United States) than Argentina.
In fact, just like America in the late 1800s and early 1900s, Argentina was overflowing with immigrants from all over the world looking for a better way of life in that land of opportunity.
The Most Insolvent Bank In The History Of The World Is. …..
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) December 12, 2024
As the 1800s came to a close and the world propelled itself full of innovation and optimism into the 20th century, there was perhaps nowhere else on the planet more admired and envied (except for the United States) than Argentina.
In fact, just like America in the late 1800s and early 1900s, Argentina was overflowing with immigrants from all over the world looking for a better way of life in that land of opportunity.
Argentina had already become a rich country at that point. And it was becoming richer so quickly that its economic growth was outpacing even that of the United States.
By 1900 Argentina’s economy was larger than the rest of Latin America combined, and roughly as large as all of Western Europe combined. It seemed like there was nowhere to go but up.
Plus the country was teeming with natural resources— everything from fresh water to some of the world’s most fertile soil, to vast oil and gas reserves. Argentina should have been unstoppable.
(This is still true today; Argentina still boasts one of the largest shale reserves in the world, having quadrupled its output over the last five years.)
You’d have to work really, really hard to screw up such wealth potential. And they did!
For much of the 20th century, Argentina slid into severe economic decay, and it remained that way for decades, mostly due to corrupt, excessive, outrageously irresponsible government spending and idiotic central planning.
Hyperinflation took hold, the banking system collapsed, and the economy has been in an extended depression.
Yet when the new chainsaw-wielding President Javier Milei took over last year, he pledged to change everything. And so far the results are pretty hard to argue with.
Earlier this week, Milei announced that Argentina has just posted a budget surplus— its FIRST surplus since those golden years in the early 1900s.
It’s not an accident. Milei has eliminated entire government departments, fired ministers, and dramatically reduced the size and scope of government.
In his announcement, Milei didn’t hold back, calling his predecessor a “fiscal degenerate” for ballooning the national debt and running massive deficits. These deficits, of course, were essentially funded by Argentina’s central bank, which printed all the money and created inflation.
Milei said that, just last year, his predecessor printed so much money that it was equal to roughly 13% of Argentina’s GDP.
Well, if printing 13% of GDP qualifies as fiscal degeneracy, then the Federal Reserve in the United States is guilty of the same thing— TWICE.
The first instance was in 2009, during the global financial crisis. Under then Chairman Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve created trillions of dollars of new money, roughly equivalent to 15% of GDP, to bail out the big Wall Street banks.
The second instance was during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, when the Fed printed roughly 14% of GDP.
This reckless money printing not only engineered historic inflation in the US, but it also has created enormous problems for the Federal Reserve itself.
The Fed is now wildly and hopelessly insolvent. And that’s not some wild conspiracy theory; it is a fact straight from its own financial statements.
Here’s how it happened:
Going back to 2008, and most significantly during the 2020-2021 pandemic, the Fed created trillions of dollars, then used that money to buy government bonds. They concurrently slashed interest rates to zero.
The net result was that the Fed is now holding trillions of dollars worth of bonds at the lowest yields in recorded history.
But then they suddenly reversed course in 2022, hiking rates rapidly from 0% to more than 5%.
Well, if there’s one thing to understand about bonds, it’s that higher rates cause bond prices to fall. So when the Fed raised rates, they simultaneously caused the value of their bond portfolio to plummet.
And “plummet” is being rather polite.
As it stands today, the Fed faces $818.4 billion in net unrealized losses from all the bonds that it purchased during the pandemic— far exceeding the mere $44 billion it has in equity capital.
Literally according to its own financial statements, the Federal Reserve is totally insolvent. In fact, at nearly $1 trillion, the Fed is the most insolvent bank in the history of the world.
Talk about fiscal degenerates.
Now, the Fed has only a few options:
One, ignore the problem. Continue to pretend that the insolvency of the largest and most systemically important central bank on the planet is no big deal.
Two, request a bailout: Go to the Treasury with hat in hand.
The problem is, the Treasury doesn’t have any money; in fact, the US government already overspends by $2 trillion per year and has to borrow most of that money from the Fed.
So a bailout would first require the Fed to print money, loan that money to the Treasury, and the Treasury then gives it back to the Fed. Talk about bizarre.
The third option is to cut interest rates. Lower rates mean that its bond portfolio will increase in value, thus reducing the Fed’s near trillion-dollar insolvency.
But cutting rates would only invite more inflation.
Inflation is already creeping back. Just yesterday, the latest report showed an increase in the inflation rate with signs it will rise further. Yet the Fed has all but promised to cut rates again next week.
What’s clear is that the Fed is abandoning its responsibility to rein in inflation and maintain a sound currency. Instead, it’s inflating its way out of insolvency.
The result? Every single person who uses US dollars will end up bailing out the Federal Reserve through higher inflation.
And this is why we continue to maintain that real assets— which are an excellent inflation hedge— make so much sense, especially given that so many high quality real asset producers are selling at laughably low valuations.
To your freedom,
James Hickman Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC
PS: Just a reminder, this week we have opened up Total Access, our highest tier membership. We intentionally keep the membership closed for most of the year, to limit the group to a small, tight-knit community.
If you want to learn more about what Total Access offers, including the unparalleled camaraderie of fellow members, click here.
12 Assets To Avoid Leaving to Your Heirs When You Die
12 Assets To Avoid Leaving to Your Heirs When You Die
Jennifer Taylor Thu, December 12, 2024 GOBankingRates
You want to leave your loved ones with assets that will enrich their lives. However, not all assets are created equal. Despite your best intentions, some of the assets you plan to bestow upon your heirs might be more of a headache. Whether they’re difficult to manage or potentially costly, you won’t be doing them any favors.
GOBankingRates spoke with financial advisors to find out which assets you don’t want to pass on. Here’s what they had to say.
12 Assets To Avoid Leaving to Your Heirs When You Die
Jennifer Taylor Thu, December 12, 2024 GOBankingRates
You want to leave your loved ones with assets that will enrich their lives. However, not all assets are created equal. Despite your best intentions, some of the assets you plan to bestow upon your heirs might be more of a headache. Whether they’re difficult to manage or potentially costly, you won’t be doing them any favors.
GOBankingRates spoke with financial advisors to find out which assets you don’t want to pass on. Here’s what they had to say.
Tax-Deferred Accounts
You worked hard to save for retirement, so it makes sense that you want to leave any remaining balance in your accounts to your heirs.
“Tax brackets are key to building this proactive inheritance strategy,” said Chad W. Holmes, CFP, CPWA, founder and financial planner at Formula Wealth in Montgomery, Alabama. If you’re in a lower tax bracket than your children, he said it might make sense to advance IRA withdrawals over the period of a few years.
“By spreading out this taxable income over multiple years, they never have a spike in tax rates,” he said. “When they pay taxes on the tax-deferred assets, they’re able to put the money into an after-tax account where it can again be invested.”
Ultimately, he said this is the best way to ensure they get as much of your hard-earned money as possible.
“Now the higher tax bracket children will receive an asset that gets a step up in basis at death, essentially inheriting the funds with no built in gains or taxes,” he said.
Health Savings Account
An HSA can be a good or bad investment to pass on, depending on who the heir is in relation to you. If you leave it to a spouse, they’ll be able to continue using the money for medical expenses with no taxes or penalties, said Pam Horack, CFP at Pathfinder Planning LLC of Lake Wylie, South Carolina.
“However, if you leave an HSA to your child, estate or other organization, it may be considered income in the year it is received,” she said. “They are not allowed to use the tax advantages for their own healthcare, and the income could inadvertently throw your heirs into a higher tax bracket.”
Real Estate Properties With High Maintenance Costs
In theory, leaving real estate to your heirs might seem like a good inheritance, but it depends on the property.
“Properties that require extensive upkeep, such as large estates or vacation homes, can burden heirs with ongoing expenses,” said Alex Doyle, CFP, wealth manager at Woodson Wealth Management in Rochester, New York. “Consider selling such properties or converting them into rental properties to generate income, or even donating them to a charitable organization.”
Illiquid Investments
TO READ MORE: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/m-financial-advisor-don-t-180050195.html
6 Reasons Your Tax Refund Will Be Higher in 2025
6 Reasons Your Tax Refund Will Be Higher in 2025
Jordan Rosenfeld Thu, December 12, 2024 GOBankingRates
Tax refunds can feel like the reward for the hassle of filing your taxes, but many Americans forget that this is not extra money coming back to you, but your own money that, in essence, you overpaid (or under-deducted) to the government. A big tax refund might actually be a sign of financial changes you need to make with your accountant, but who doesn’t like getting money back instead of paying it out?
According to Alex Freund, a financial advisor and owner of Freund & Smith Advisors, a Northwestern Mutual firm, here are six reasons why your tax refund could be higher in 2025.
6 Reasons Your Tax Refund Will Be Higher in 2025
Jordan Rosenfeld Thu, December 12, 2024 GOBankingRates
Tax refunds can feel like the reward for the hassle of filing your taxes, but many Americans forget that this is not extra money coming back to you, but your own money that, in essence, you overpaid (or under-deducted) to the government. A big tax refund might actually be a sign of financial changes you need to make with your accountant, but who doesn’t like getting money back instead of paying it out?
According to Alex Freund, a financial advisor and owner of Freund & Smith Advisors, a Northwestern Mutual firm, here are six reasons why your tax refund could be higher in 2025.
If You Earned the Same (or Less) Income as Last Year
A common reason you might wind up with more money back in 2025 is if you earned the same, or even less, income because there are inflationary adjustments that occur to the tax rates, brackets and deductions, Freund explained.
“Almost everything in the tax code is stipulated and scheduled to increase on an annual basis with inflation,” Freund said.
If you don’t make any more income in 2025 compared to 2024, you’ll actually pay less in taxes and get a bigger refund “because the deductions are going up by inflation as well as the brackets,” he said.
If You Made Increased Contributions to Retirement Accounts
If you made any increased contributions to tax advantaged retirement accounts, such as a 401(k), which reduce your taxable income now, the taxes on your gains or even later upon withdrawal, such as with a Roth IRA, your refund might be higher. Freund pointed out that the federal government provides these kinds of deductions to “incentivize people to make these contributions so they aren’t broke or asset-less as they get near or into retirement, or be fully reliant on Social Security or government assistance.”
For example, he said, let’s say a couple is in a 22% tax bracket. If you’re married filing jointly, that’s generally taxable income between $100,000 and $200,000, you’re paying about 22 cents on every dollar in taxes. “Well, the same holds true if you put away a dollar into a retirement plan — you’re saving about 22 cents in taxes,” he said.
If You Take Self-Employment Deductions
The self-employed small-business person or independent contractor is entitled to take a variety of deductions for “reasonable and necessary” business expenses and operations, Freund explained. While you want to work with a CPA to make sure you’re doing this correctly, if you had greater expenses or discovered new deductions you’re eligible for, this could reduce your taxable income and potentially see a return to you of more of the taxes you paid to the government.
If You Qualify For Tax Credits
Tax credits are basically “government incentives to do something,” Freund said, and they can reduce your taxable income. “So in this world where we’re trying to become more green, you have tax credits for installing efficient furnaces and air conditioning units and solar panels on your house, efficient washers and dryers, et cetera,” he explained.
TO READ MORE: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/6-reasons-tax-refund-higher-160023489.html
Great News If You Own A Company
Great News If You Own A Company
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) December 7, 2024
Right at the beginning of the year in early January, I wrote to you about one of the dumbest laws to hit the books in the Land of the Free in a VERY long time. It’s called the Corporate Transparency Act.
Great News If You Own A Company
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) December 7, 2024
Right at the beginning of the year in early January, I wrote to you about one of the dumbest laws to hit the books in the Land of the Free in a VERY long time. It’s called the Corporate Transparency Act.
The article was called, “Get ready to spend two years in prison,” because, two years in prison is literally the penalty for noncompliance.
You see, the do-gooders in Washington decided that there is too much criminal money laundering taking place in the US banking system. Nevermind that these brainiacs have already passed countless other laws to combat money laundering... all of which seem to be dismal failures.
So they decided to pass yet another anti-money laundering law, which requires every company in America to file a special report to the federal government disclosing the names of its owners.
So if you own a Delaware LLC, for example, to own your family investments, then they wanted you to file this report... even though you ALREADY report the exact same information to the IRS each year.
Well that doesn’t matter. The government wants you to send the same info— but in a different format— to another agency within the Treasury Department. And if you don’t file the report, they threatened everyone with up to two years in prison.
Obviously “ignorance of the law is not an excuse”. They just expect you to keep up with the flood of new laws, plus agency rules, plus court decisions which might modify or nullify all the rules and laws.
Case in point: earlier this week, a VERY sensible federal judge thankfully issued a nationwide injunction on the Corporate Transparency Act, suspending compliance requirements until a final ruling.
This is great news; it means that, at least for now, you do not have to comply with the CTA. But it also illustrates how quickly the laws change. Like literally every single day.
It’s practically a full-time job to keep up with all the changes... and it’s virtually impossible to have a functioning society when the rules are so fluid.
This is the topic of this weekend’s podcast— we hope you enjoy and look forward to speaking with you again next week.
To your freedom, James Hickman Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC
ABOUT THE AUTHOR James Hickman (aka Simon Black) is an international investor, entrepreneur, and founder of Sovereign Man. His free daily e-letter Notes from the Field is about using the experiences from his life and travels to help you achieve more freedom, make more money, keep more of it, and protect it all from bankrupt governments.
https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/podcast-great-news-if-you-own-a-company-151858/