Preparing For The Escalation That’s Likely To Come

Preparing For The Escalation That’s Likely To Come

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)   April 17, 2025

There’s rumors floating around alleging that top secret plans from the Chinese Communist Party have been leaked, indicating that China’s President Xi Jinping views this conflict with the US as the opening to a complete and total war.

Personally I’m skeptical if these leaked documents exist, and if they are legitimate. I don't think anyone has any way to know.

But I will reiterate my view that, while I don’t believe war is imminent or certain, it’s clear that the US and China are closer to conflict now than they have been since at least the 1960s when China participated in the Vietnam War.

It’s not hard to understand why. The two largest economic powers in the world are deliberately trying to hurt one another. And history is full of examples of economic wars which escalate into much larger conflict.

We can certainly hope that cooler heads prevail. But as we used to say in the military, hope is not a course of action... and it’s imperative to acknowledge that this major risk exists.

How might things escalate?

First on the list is the very real and immediate risk of a cyberattack from China.

In fact that’s already happening.

Remember SolarWinds— the massive cyberattack in 2020 where state-sponsored foreign hackers compromised a widely used IT management platform to infiltrate US government agencies and major corporations?

That single attack gave the CCP access to countless US networks.

More recently, a top Chinese official admitted Beijing’s responsibility for the Volt Typhoon cyberattacks targeting US infrastructure, in a closed-door December 2024 meeting.

In 2015, Chinese hackers breached the US Office of Personnel Management and stole sensitive data on over 22 million federal employees, including security clearance files and fingerprints. They were inside the systems for months before they were detected.

And just this week, major US banks including JPMorgan raised the alarm after discovering the email system of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)— a US banking regulator— had been hacked, potentially to steal credentials that gain further access to systems and information.

It doesn’t really matter which of these can be directly linked to the CCP. Russian hackers, North Korean infiltrators, Chinese non-state entities— they are all in it together.

And the fact that China seems to leave everything intact after their attacks, without damaging or disrupting systems, is actually the scariest part.

We’re talking sleeper viruses. Malware that’s already inside the system.

And the target? Some of the most critical infrastructure in the country. The power grid. Water systems. Financial institutions. These aren’t exactly hardened digital fortresses. In fact, many of these systems are laughably insecure.

The US energy sector in particular still operates on shockingly low-tech infrastructure with outdated code. Same story with large parts of our financial system.

I’ve written before about how SWIFT—the nerve center of global financial transfers—was recently running outdated Windows (version 7!!) operating systems.

Bottom line, Chinese hackers and malware are embedded in vulnerable US systems. They have access. They have credentials. Let’s not be naive about this.

Imagine waking up one morning and your bank app doesn’t load. Your credit card doesn’t work. You can’t send a wire, can’t make payroll, can’t even pay your rent. Maybe you don’t even have electricity, or clean running water.

A Plan B for this scenario has never been more important.

The first step is easy— buy a secure home safe, and keep enough cash on hand to pay for a month or two of necessities.

Add some precious metals which allow you to maintain physical custody of some savings, with no third party in between you and your money. Have gold and silver coins and bars in a variety of weights so you could spend them in an emergency.

Holding some cryptocurrency isn’t a bad idea either— offline, on a hardware wallet that can also go in the safe. Again, this takes some of your savings out of the vulnerable financial system, and allows you to maintain physical custody of your funds.

Here’s another key point aside from money: China manufactures over 40% of the world's active pharmaceutical ingredients— the chemical compounds which make up drugs— and up to 95% of particular compounds, such as crucial ingredients in the antibiotic penicillin.

So even if the final product isn't labeled "Made in China," the underlying ingredients may still originate from Chinese manufacturers.

That’s a significant role in the global pharma supply chain that could cause massive disruptions if they chose to weaponize it. 

So if you take regular medication, make sure to keep extra on hand.

Having a power generator is another good backup plan, whether it runs on propane or gasoline, or solar panels and batteries. The same goes for extra water storage.

Again, I’m not saying that there’s some imminent danger. But we shouldn’t ignore the risk. And the point is that there’s no downside to taking sensible precautions.

That’s the basic premise of a Plan B: identify the biggest threats against your safety and prosperity, and take reasonable steps now that give you confidence in the face of uncertainty.

These are all fairly easy steps to take that give us options to respond to whatever happens, since none of us know exactly how any of this will play out.

Soon, we’ll discuss additional Plan B strategies that give you even more dexterity in the event of prolonged system disruptions, and equally disruptive potential emergency responses from the US government.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/preparing-for-the-escalation-thats-likely-to-come-152552/?inf_contact_key=6f0cbd6941df8d38cfa6f0a90e96eddd0c973b8936282bcfa17ad90af1aa6cc5

10 Most Awesome Things You Can Do for Your Finances

I’m a Financial Advisor: 10 Most Awesome Things You Can Do for Your Finances

Cara Danielle Brown  Wed, April 16, 2025  GOBankingRates

Looking to make the most of your finances, starting today? Some may think that taking financial risks or chasing trends is the key to maximizing potential.

But, according to Michael Fiammetta, financial advisor at 4 Generations Wealth Management, the best thing one can do this year is the same thing he or she can and should be doing every year: master the basics.

Maximize Retirement Contributions

Contributing as much as you can as early as you can to your 401(k) or IRA — within annual limits — “is one of the smartest moves you can make for your future self,” Fiammetta said.

This is because nothing helps grow your retirement savings over time like compound interest. Can’t afford to contribute the maximum amount? That’s okay. Fiammetta argued that boosting contributions by a mere 1% in 2025 will impact your financial future.

Diversify Your Portfolio

If your investments are concentrated in one sector or asset class, consider diversifying stat.

“A diversified portfolio–spanning stocks, bonds, real estate, and more — reduces risk and positions you for long-term success,” said Fiammetta. This way, if one or two investments don’t perform well, others can balance out the loss.

Create an Estate Plan

No one likes to think about it. But what would happen to your money if you meet your untimely demise? In the absence of an estate plan, the state would determine who gets your assets based on unique intestacy laws that establish priority order beginning with closest living relatives.

But what if you wish to dictate particular amounts to specific individuals, or you prefer to pass assets to extended family and charitable organizations? Make sure a trust or will is put in place. Having a say in how your money is divided up ensures your preferences are honored and your legacy is carried on. It could also help loved ones avoid probate.

Review and Update Beneficiaries

TO READ MORE:  https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/m-financial-advisor-10-most-140127402.html

6 Things You Should Never Put in a Living Trust

6 Things You Should Never Put in a Living Trust

Preston Hartwick

Tue, November 12, 2024 GOBankingRates

Estate planning provides for the smooth handling of your assets after death. However, only around 32% of American adults have a will, indicating that most people haven’t taken the appropriate steps to prepare for the management of their estate, according to LegalZoom.

One essential tool for estate planning is a living trust. It allows your assets to bypass the lengthy, costly probate process and maintains your financial privacy.

Since a living trust can be amended or revoked at any point during your lifetime, it also serves as a flexible way to control your assets, avoid family disputes and ultimately provide peace of mind knowing that your estate will be managed according to your wishes.

However, not every type of asset belongs in a living trust. This article will cover the assets you should exclude from your living trust and why.

Things To Leave Out of Your Living Trust

Including certain assets in a living trust can complicate estate management, trigger tax consequences or negatively impact the asset’s value.

While it’s always a good idea to consult an estate planning attorney for legal advice, consider excluding the following assets to maximize the benefits of your living trust:

1. Retirement Accounts

Retirement accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs can trigger tax consequences if you include them in your living will.

Since your living trust is a separate legal entity, any transfers you make from a retirement account count as a withdrawal. This makes transfers taxable and subject to penalties for early withdrawal.

One way to avoid this issue is to name the living trust as a beneficiary on the retirement account. Any funds in the account transfer to the trust upon your death and are distributed to other beneficiaries according to your will.

2. Health Savings Accounts and Medical Savings Accounts

Health savings accounts (HSAs) and medical savings accounts (MSAs) only offer tax-free growth if you use the money for medical expenses. Therefore, transferring an HSA or MSA to a living trust would cause you to lose this tax protection.

By keeping HSAs outside your trust and designating beneficiaries directly, you can continue to enjoy the tax benefits of your HSA or MSA.

3. Active Bank Accounts

You can include checking accounts or other active financial accounts into your living trust, but there are easier ways to transfer funds to your heirs and bypass the probate process.

TO READ MORE:  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/6-things-never-put-living-190103941.html

77% of Americans Plan To Use Tax Refunds for Essential Expenses: 5 Tips for Using Yours

77% of Americans Plan To Use Tax Refunds for Essential Expenses: 5 Tips for Using Yours

Dawn Allcot  Tue, April 15, 2025   GOBankingRates

For Americans who usually receive a tax refund, that spring windfall sometimes helps cover a treat, like a family vacation, a pool or new patio furniture. But for a majority of people this year, their tax refund is going toward necessities, according to a study from Talker Research, commissioned by TaxSlayer.

The study found that 77% of Americans will spend their tax refund on necessities this year. What’s on the top of their list? More than half (52%) of those polled said the money will go toward rent or utility bills. Meanwhile, 44% will put the money toward groceries and essential goods. Thirty-seven percent are using the cash to pay down credit card debt, with 56% of that group still paying off holiday bills.

This is common — and nothing to be ashamed of — in today’s financial environment.

“If your refund is going straight to keeping the lights on and food in the fridge, that probably says more about the cost of living than your decision-making,” said Taylor Kovar, CFP, founder and CEO of 11 Financial. “That kind of pressure is real.”

However, there are ways to plan ahead to remove some of that financial sting throughout the rest of 2025. Try spending what you can of your tax refund strategically to try to get ahead.

Look at Your Spending Patterns

If you’re consistently running behind on fixed expenses, like your car loan, rent or utility bills, you should “zoom out and look at the patterns,” Kovar advised. “It’s worth seeing if there’s a monthly expense that’s quietly draining your budget.”

See if you can change due dates on bills so everything doesn’t hit your bank account at the same time too. If you have good credit, consider consolidating some of your credit card debt to a 0% interest credit card that you can aim to pay off within 12 to 18 months.

Sometimes, small tweaks like changing due dates and reducing interest payments can provide the breathing room you need.

Use Your Refund To Build a Small Cushion

If you can, deposit part of your refund into a high-yield savings account to provide a buffer for months when emergency expenses crop up or cash gets tight.

“The goal isn’t perfection,” Kovar said. “It’s just trying to make the months ahead feel a little less like a juggling act.”

Plan for the Holidays

TO READ MORE:   https://finance.yahoo.com/news/77-americans-plan-tax-refunds-170500998.html

What Does A Financial Advisor Do And When Should You Get One?

What Does A Financial Advisor Do And When Should You Get One?

Brian Baker, CFA  Mon, April 14, 2025   Bankrate

Most people are aware of financial advisors and may even hire one at some point in their lives, but what exactly do financial advisors do? Financial advisors provide advice and guidance on a variety of financial issues you’ll encounter over the course of your life such as investments, retirement planning, insurance and even taxes.

Here’s what else you should know about financial advisors, including the advantages and disadvantages of using one and when you should consider hiring one.

Financial Advisors: What They Do And How They Can Help Manage Your Money

A financial advisor is someone who helps you manage various aspects of your financial life. People most often associate financial advisors with planning for retirement, but they can also be involved in general investment management, budgeting, insurance, taxes, estate planning and more.

Financial advisors charge a fee, often expressed as a percentage of your assets, in return for their services. They can assist you with several different aspects of your financial life, but not all advisors or firms provide the same services.

Here are some of the common areas financial advisors provide guidance on:

Goal planning: One of the first things an advisor typically does is ask clients about their short- and long-term financial goals. A financial plan is then built around achieving those goals while taking into account the unique circumstances of each client.

Budgeting: If you’re just starting out in your financial journey or even if you’re more established, advisors can help you construct an overall budget and identify ways to boost your savings, if necessary.

Investments: Financial advisors also provide advice on your investment portfolio and can assess things such as your overall asset allocation. They can also answer questions and recommend investment products such as mutual funds and ETFs.

Retirement planning: Nearly every financial advisor will be able to assist with retirement planning, which is often the biggest long-term financial goal for most people. They can help you navigate your employer’s 401(k) plan and offer guidance on other choices such as a traditional or Roth IRA.

Taxes: Financial advisors can provide guidance that takes into account current and future tax considerations.

Insurance: Financial advisors can also help you determine whether life insurance or annuity products make sense for you, but be sure to understand whether the advisor will receive a commission on the product they’re selling to you.

Estate planning: Planning for the end of life isn’t easy, but financial advisors may be able to guide you through the estate planning process, which will make it easier on your heirs when that time comes.

Types Of Financial Advisors

TO READ MORE:  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/financial-advisor-215453387.html

What It Really Means To Help Someone — And The Consequences That Can Follow

What It Really Means To Help Someone — And The Consequences That Can Follow

He borrowed $20K from his brother — then crashed the car he bought instead of going to law school

Victoria Vesovski  Moneywise   Sun, April 13, 2025

When a loved one is in need, lending a helping hand can feel like second nature — even with a price tag.

On a recent episode of his new Netflix talk show, Everybody’s Live With John Mulaney, the comedian explores what it really means to help someone — and the consequences that can follow.

He’s joined by actor Michael Keaton and Jessica Roy, a personal finance columnist for the San Francisco Chronicle. Their first caller was Dylan from Montville, New Jersey, who borrowed $20,000 from his brother to attend law school. But instead of cracking open textbooks, Dylan bought a car. Then he crashed it. After selling the wreck for scrap, only $1,200 of the original $20,000 remained.

Now, Dylan finds himself in a bind: no money, no law degree, a totaled car and a $20,000 lie he has to repay.

It’s a cautionary tale and one that might hit closer to home than you’d expect. Whether you’ve loaned money to a loved one or considered asking for help yourself, navigating finances within personal relationships can be tricky.

Being a good friend

When money enters the mix between friends and family, the emotional toll can often outweigh the financial loss. A LendingTree survey found that 31% of Americans are owed money by a loved one — with friends and siblings being the most common borrowers.

The top reason? Covering debt payments and everyday expenses like meals and gas. But personal lending often comes with strings attached: nearly half of the respondents said they regretted lending money to someone close, and one in six admitted it had damaged a relationship.

In the episode, Roy emphasized that lending money to someone you care about requires a mental shift.

“Any money you loan someone you need to be psychologically detached from it,” she explained. “It’s a gift and I’m not going to get it back.”

It’s a mindset that protects more than just your wallet — it safeguards your relationships, too. When lending to friends and family, boundaries are just as valuable as budgets.

Stuck in a tough spot

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/borrowed-20k-brother-then-crashed-102500592.html