A Former Fed Official Finally Tells The Truth About Inflation…

A Former Fed Official Finally Tells The Truth About Inflation…

Notes From The Field By James Hickman / Simon Black 7-29-24

My sister used to be a reporter for Fox News based in south Florida and would regularly be assigned to cover NASA press conferences.

And she’s often told me about how reporters were terrified to ask any real questions. They’re not astrophysicists and don’t understand the first thing about rocket propulsion, and most of the journalists never bothered to learn even the basics of the topic.

So, the majority of the questions were very superficial; quite simply the reporters didn’t want to embarrass themselves.

This is how the media covers the Federal Reserve. Most reporters don’t have a clue about central banking, so, not wanting to look stupid, they just sit quietly and give the Fed a pass. There’s no real scrutiny.

At the same time, Fed officials are generally in lockstep with one another; it’s not like politics where the two sides constantly chastise one another. With the Fed, there is virtually no public dissent.

Even former Fed officials who have long left the bank maintain an almost mafioso code of silence.

The end result is that no one really criticizes the Fed. And because of this, the Fed has been able to cultivate a reputation that they’re in total control of the situation… even though their track record proves the opposite.

The Fed completely failed to predict inflation in 2020 after engaging in record money printing. Then they missed the warning signs in early 2021, then misdiagnosed inflation as “transitory” in late 2021, then still failed to act until early 2022.

Yet despite such failures, the Fed is still sticking to the narrative that they know what they’re doing. And with hardly anyone challenging them, it’s been easy to maintain a veneer of omnipotence.

But Kevin Warsh broke ranks this weekend. As a former Fed governor, he is the ultimate insider… and he penned an editorial published in the Wall Street Journal on Saturday blasting many of the Fed’s decisions.

Warsh describes how, when he joined the central bank in 2006, its entire balance sheet was just $800 billion. But in order to deal with the 2008 financial shock (yet another crisis that the Fed missed), they invented “quantitative easing”, or QE.

QE was just a fancy way to say they were conjuring massive amounts of money out of thin air. Informally we could say they were ‘printing money’, though almost all of the new money was created in digital rather than paper form. They click a few buttons, and, poof, new money.

Naturally the Fed promised to eventually unwind QE and drain all of that new money out of the financial system. But they never did.

On the contrary, the Fed embarked on THREE distinct rounds of QE between 2008 and 2013, increasing the balance sheet each time. In the end, the Fed’s balance sheet peaked at $4.5 TRILLION, more than 5x its size prior to the 2008 crisis.

And they kept it at that level for years. Even by 2020, the Fed balance sheet was still around $4 trillion in size.

So much for unwinding. And when the pandemic hit, the Fed quickly pulled out its QE playbook and embarked on a fourth round of money printing… exploding the balance sheet all the way to NINE TRILLION dollars.

Warsh eviscerates the Fed policymakers for failing to see such obvious consequences and explains that there is a very clear connection between the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, i.e. the amount of money it prints, and inflation.

“The monetary base is up 60% since the pandemic. Another measure of money, M2, is up 36% in the past four years. The inflation surge in the same period-- cumulatively about 22%-- shouldn’t have been a surprise.”

“The high priests of central bank dogma might consider it blasphemy,” he writes, but “less money printing, less inflation.” Duh.

He goes on to say, “The American people are still paying a high price for the central bank’s policy error,” and that if the Fed really wants to tame inflation, they’re going to have to slash their balance sheet, i.e. unwind most of the new money that they printed.

Fat chance.

In fact, Warsh points out that the Fed has already indicated they will NOT reduce the size of their balance sheet any longer. And Peter and I both believe the Fed will soon embark on even more QE.

Why? Because the federal government has a serious spending problem. Even the government’s own budget forecasts show an additional $22 trillion in deficit spending over the next decade.

And where will the bulk of that money come from? Most likely from the Fed. They’ll launch QE5, QE6, and beyond, to print the trillions and trillions of dollars that the US government will need to make ends meet in the coming decade.

Sure, it’s possible that the government gets real… that they cut spending, eliminate some entitlements, slash regulations, abandon idiotic green initiatives, and stop standing in the way of conventional energy.

But the window of opportunity is extremely narrow… and depends on the election this year. Plus, a lot of things will have to go right, and very little can go wrong.

So, it’s reasonable to anticipate more deficit spending, which means more Fed printing. And more inflation.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/a-former-fed-official-finally-tells-the-truth-about-inflation-151193/

Some Thoughts On America For Her 248th Birthday

Some Thoughts On America For Her 248th Birthday

Notes From The Field by James Hickman  (Simon Black Sovereign Man) July 3, 2024

When the 56 delegates to the Second Continental Congress ratified the Declaration of Independence 248 years ago tomorrow, they were creating much more than a nation. They were giving birth to an idea.

America, at its core, is an idea. And it’s one that ranks as one of the greatest innovations in the history of human civilization, right up there with the wheel, the steam engine, the printing press, and the Internet.

The idea of America wasn’t born in 1776, however. By then it had already evolved over thousands of years.

The ancient Greeks embraced individual liberty, direct democracy, and a respect for the rule of law.

The Roman republic further refined Greek democracy and developed a more professional legal code. The early Roman Empire embodied peace through strength, ushering in nearly two centuries of geopolitical stability and economic prosperity under the Pax Romana.

The later Byzantine Empire fused Greek and Roman ideas with Judeo-Christian values. And by 1000 AD, the Republic of Venice– borrowing from Rome’s republican form of government– infused an early form of capitalism to this model.

The Dutch republic of the 1600s refined the concept of a powerful, free, capitalist society even further, as did philosophers like Rousseau, Montesquieu, John Locke, and Adam Smith.

So, when the Founding Fathers wrote the Declaration of Independence (and subsequently the US Constitution), they didn’t have to start from scratch; they drew from a rich, 2,000-year intellectual heritage of the giants who came before them.

This means that America is ultimately a composite of the very best ideas that human civilization ever had to offer— and the combined concept was then elevated to unprecedented heights.

Nothing is perfect, and America wasn’t either.

But based on this idea, the United States became the world’s largest economy in less than a century and the dominant global superpower about 80 years later. That is an unparalleled achievement which no other superpower in human history has come close to matching.

It’s also worth pointing out that the majority of the world’s most important innovations, from airplanes and air conditioning to cell phones and chocolate chip cookies, were either born or perfected in America.

Again, none of this is an accident. America’s success is the deliberate outcome from combining the best ideas from 2,000+ years of human civilization… plus some disciplined execution and a little bit of luck.

Obviously, America has weathered challenges as well. The Civil War. The Great Depression. The turmoil of the 1960s.

But its foundation of economic potential, plus a baseline of social cohesion and shared values, have always allowed the nation to overcome… and for the idea of America to persist.

The country is now at an undeniable crossroads, and it’s not just about a single election.

There are obvious signs of national decline: rising inflation, mounting debt, diminished global standing, a loss of government dignity, and stinging embarrassments like the shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Even the idea of America itself is on the ropes; there are powerful forces within government, media, and the education system who seek to redefine America’s core principles.

Capitalism has been demonized and reinvented. Individual liberty has given way to a radical woke ideology. And the concept of limited government is almost a punchline at this point.

Still, there is a plausible scenario in which America’s best days are ahead.

If politicians embrace the principles that originally fueled the country’s prosperity—such as capitalism and laissez-faire productivity—America could experience an economic boom not seen since the Industrial Revolution.

By cutting taxes, slashing anti-capitalist regulation, and embracing the free market, the increase in productivity could be staggering.

This boom would lead to increased tax revenue, i.e. funds which could rebuild the military, secure the southern border, save Social Security, curb inflation, balance the budget, and chip away at the national debt.

As China buckles under the consequences of its central planning and upside-down demographic pyramid (brought on by its idiotic “One Child policy”), the United States could easily reassert its global primacy.

The dollar’s status as the global reserve currency would be unquestioned, and the world could see a new era of global peace and prosperity.

This is not a pipe dream. It’s a genuine possibility.

The other possibility is that the government does nothing to arrest America’s decline.

The debt continues to spiral further out of control. Rising deficits trigger painful inflation. Excessive regulation stifles economic growth, leaving the economy stagnant and performing far below its full potential.

Individuals are constrained by politicians’ incessant and debilitating rules about how to live, what to buy, and what to drive. The social fabric continues to tear apart with idiotic mandates, censorship, wokeness, gaslighting, and a hatred for capitalism.

Unfortunately, that is the road the country is presently on. Yes, it can be fixed. They can change directions. And we certainly hope that happens.

But as we used to say in the military, hope is not a course of action. That’s why we have a Plan B.

Having a Plan B is not being negative or pessimistic. It’s certainly not irrational. And it’s not unpatriotic.

The fierce individuality to NOT bow down to circumstances is exactly what has allowed America to persevere so many times before.

And taking sensible steps to preserve, protect, and defend what you have worked so hard to achieve in life is about as core of an American value as it gets.   

James Hickman 

James Hickman (aka Simon Black) is an international investor, entrepreneur, and founder of Sovereign Man. His free daily e-letter Notes from the Field is about using the experiences from his life and travels to help you achieve more freedom, make more money, keep more of it, and protect it all from bankrupt governments.

More Articles By James Hickman

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/some-thoughts-on-america-for-her-248th-birthday-151123/

Five Predictions For The Coming Decade Of Decline

Five Predictions For The Coming Decade Of Decline

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  June 11, 2024

There is a well-known modern proverb (often attributed to the novelist G. Michael Hopf) that goes, "Weak men create hard times, hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men."

The saying sums up the cyclical nature of the rise and fall of societies– and it’s a topic in which I have tremendous personal interest.

Having recently reached middle age, I can comfortably say with the benefit of hindsight that I was born and grew up during the American prime time– the time at which the wealthiest and most powerful country in the history of the world was at its peak.

The US is still an incredible country with so much prosperity and opportunity. But it would be completely naive and ignorant to claim that America is not in substantial decline.

Its standing in the world has waned, much of it just over the past few years. It’s hard for adversary nations to take you seriously when your President shakes hands with thin air and embassy employees in Kabul have to be evacuated by helicopter.

Financial challenges keep piling up– from the insolvency of Social Security to the $35 trillion national debt to the inflation problem that just won’t go away.

And social divisions, many of which have been bizarrely self-inflicted, seem to grow more tense by the day.

Fortunately, America’s decline began from a historically high peak. So even in its diminished state, again, it is still wealthy and powerful.

But the real concern isn’t where the country is today. It’s the trend, i.e. where the country will end up in ten years’ time if it stays on current course.

I’ve spent the past fifteen years studying similar cases throughout history– the US is far from alone as the only nation that has ever peaked and declined.

And one of the best works on the subject I’ve ever read is The Collapse of Complex Societies, by anthropologist Joseph Tainter.

“Collapse” is a strong word and conjures images of anarchy and death. But Tainter’s definition is more precise; “collapse” doesn’t mean that a society or nation ceases to exist, but that it experiences a steep decline in political, social, and economic stability.

This is what (I believe it’s clear) the US is going through right now, and the trend is accelerating.

Tainter’s book examines the common factors of how different societies throughout history declined– from ancient Mesopotamia to Western Rome. And his analysis shows that one of the key culprits in collapse is the inability of a government to recognize problems… or to solve them.

Many ancient Roman emperors were legendary for failing to recognize the horrible problems brought on by their policies and incompetence– inflation, invasion, etc.

This pretty much describes the US federal government in a nutshell.

Politicians can barely talk about problems in a civil and rational manner. And quite often they refuse to even acknowledge them.

We’ve seen this over and over again with issues such as inflation, the southern border, crime, and social security.

For example, the Social Security trustees publish a report each year stating plainly that the program is going to run out of money by 2033. But no one in Washington wants to talk about it. Joe Biden has even pledged to veto ANY efforts to reform the program.

Biden’s top officials also repeat the bold-faced lie that “the border is secure”, while actively encouraging illegal immigration. The federal government even sued Texas to stop the state from securing the border on its own.

The people in charge demonize and defund police, decriminalize theft, and elect progressive prosecutors who let violent criminals go free.

It’s the same dysfunction with federal spending. These people can’t even acknowledge that a $35 trillion national debt is catastrophic. Most politicians happily ignore it, and others come up with more outrageous spending to further the debt spiral.

They cannot acknowledge the problem, let alone discuss it rationally. Merely passing a budget now routinely devolves into a crisis.

Our view of where this trend leads is clear:

1. Inflation is coming.

There is little hope of responsible spending. The government’s own projections forecast an extra $20 trillion in new debt over the coming decade, and frankly that’s optimistic.

History shows that explosions in national debt are financed by the Federal Reserve creating new money– which ultimately causes inflation.

When the Fed created $5 trillion of new money during the pandemic, we got 9% inflation. How much inflation will $20+ trillion cause?

And the worse inflation becomes, the more urgency the rest of the world will have to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency… which will result in even MORE inflation in the US.

It’s a vicious cycle in which inflation will create more inflation. We project this is 5-7 years away.

2. Social Security is not going to be there for you.

Social Security is not a political problem; it’s an arithmetic problem. And the math just doesn’t add up.

Every year the US Secretary of Treasury signs the report saying plainly that, by 2033, Social Security’s trust funds will run out of money. Benefits will have to be permanently cut by 25% and then become worse over time.

3. Higher taxes are virtually guaranteed.

Politicians love claiming that people should pay their “fair share” but can never quite define how much that means.

And they have already moved the goalposts on who exactly owes society more— the “billionaires” became the top 1%, then quickly shot up to the top 5%, then 10% and soon it will be the top 25%.

Higher taxes won’t just be federal. State and local taxes— from sales tax to property tax— are very likely to cost more, while your governments provide much less.

4. Continued social chaos.

Every time it feels like the lack of civility and unity across Western Civilization can’t get any worse, something new erupts.

The latest is university students screaming “from the river to the sea” and “Just Stop Oil” while defacing artwork and public monuments. Rising tides of socialism and racial animosity never seem to ebb, and idiotic wokeness just won’t go away.

These social divisions will likely continue to grow.

5. Maybe most importantly, major geopolitical disruptions.

As the financial and social decline of the US becomes increasingly obvious to the rest of the world, adversaries are becoming more emboldened.

Nations like China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are likely to grow more assertive, and there will be significant calls to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency.

Soft war incidents like spy balloons, manufactured pandemics, cyberattacks, etc. will persist— and if we’re very lucky, there won’t be a shooting war. I give it 50/50.

It’s exasperating. Anybody over the age of about 35 remembers a time when it wasn’t like this.

Yet now chaos is the norm. I’m not saying this to be dramatic– it’s important to be intellectually honest.

Part of being intellectually honest means acknowledging that, again, the US is still a great country with an incredibly powerful economy, boasting some of the most valuable businesses in the world.

And Americans still enjoy an extremely high standard of living— albeit one that has been disrupted in recent years by the combination of inflation, crime, and social chaos.

The most exasperating part is that these problems are fixable.

The US government could spend responsibly, encourage capitalism and innovation to grow the economy, and its debt problems would melt away. The dollar would remain valuable. US leadership might even earn back global trust.

But with the current people in charge, I wouldn’t hold my breath. And I also wouldn’t put all my hopes and dreams on the voters smartening up anytime soon.

Yet there are still plenty of solutions that independent-minded individuals can execute without relying on the government.

For example:

Problem: Future inflation will pose a major problem to one’s savings.

Solution: Invest in assets which do well during, or even benefit from, inflation— real assets such as energy, mining, and productive technology. Right now many of these are selling for record low prices, yet poised for substantial growth.

Problem: An overrun border and rising crime rates threaten cities and living standards.

Solution: Obtain a second residency in a foreign country where you really enjoy spending time, or even obtain a second passport. This way you and your family will always have a place to go if the need ever arises.

Problem: Social Security’s trust funds will run out of money within a decade.

Solution: Maximize contributions to retirement accounts— including a special type of 401k which could allow you to double contributions and direct where funds are invested. This lowers your taxable income, puts more money away for retirement, and allows the investments to grow tax-free.

There are solutions for people who, unlike the government, are willing to recognize the problems and actually do something about it.

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/five-predictions-for-the-coming-decade-of-decline-151037/

If you’re feeling a bit overwhelmed and unsure how to get started, I want to take a moment and introduce you to our newest product called Schiff Sovereign Premium.

To Read More:   Click here to find out more.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

Gold Will Soon Displace The US Dollar, And Americans Are Missing Out

Gold Will Soon Displace The US Dollar, And Americans Are Missing Out

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) June 3 2024

Next month will mark 80 years since the US dollar was formally anointed as the world’s reserve currency.

It was July 1944. And with the war in Europe near its denouement, governments were already trying to plan what the postwar world would look like. Most urgently, they needed to figure out how to rebuild their devastated economies.

Just think about the mess they were in: nearly every industrialized country in Europe had been destroyed by war. Manufacturing and farming were both in the dumps, and they had very little savings to invest in economic revival.

They also had a gigantic mess when it came to international trade. Dozens of countries each had their own currencies, so commercial trade meant each government keeping 20-30 currencies in reserve.

France, for example, would have to hold Austrian schillings, British pounds, Spanish pesetas, Italian lira, Dutch guilders, Soviet rubles, etc. in reserve, just to be able to trade.

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A much, much simpler solution was for every country to use the same currency to trade with each other. And there was no question about which currency would be the right choice: the US dollar.

In 1944, the United States still had a strong and powerful economy. It had robust capital markets and a well-developed financial system. It was the only country left standing.

So, representatives from more than 40 nations gathered that summer in picturesque Bretton Woods, New Hampshire and formally agreed to use the US dollar for international trade and commerce.

More specifically, each country fixed its exchange rate to the US dollar, while the US dollar was fixed to gold.

It only lasted about thirty years. By the early 1970s, the original Bretton Woods deal had been completely undone. Currencies floated freely against each other (including the dollar), and the US dollar terminated its link with gold.

And yet (thanks in part to Saudi Arabia agreeing to sell oil in dollars), the US dollar has continued to remain the dominant reserve currency through today.

For the most part that was still a sensible bet; the US has been the world’s #1 economy for the past five decades. But the cracks are obvious.

The US federal debt is a national embarrassment. At $35 trillion, the debt is far larger than the entire US economy… and it gets worse every year.

The US government is also completely dysfunctional. The vitriol and enmity, among the parties and within the parties, is so extreme that virtually nothing productive or beneficial ever takes place. The business of government now is merely two sides screaming that the other is a threat to democracy.

The President barely knows where he is half the time, and the other half he spends shredding the Constitution to engage in some anti-capitalist, inflationary, fanatical woke climate agenda.

Sadly, this isn’t a one-time blip. America’s governance and finances have been deteriorating for most of this century-- starting with the endlessly expensive War on Terror, through the free-spending Obama years, to the pandemic… and now the very real prospect that the next four years could look very similar to the previous four years.

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America is supposed to be a reliable, stabilizing force in the world. But today’s America has lost its grip. And foreign nations have noticed.

Most people alive today don’t remember a world in which the dollar wasn’t #1 and therefore cannot fathom a world in which this is no longer the case. But it’s irrational to assume that something will continue indefinitely, forever, simply because of the status quo today.

It’s not 1944 anymore. Back then there were no other options… and no one who even came close to rivaling the military and economic superiority of the United States.

Today both of those are in decline. It’s not to say the military can no longer fight or that the economy is in complete shambles. But America no longer has the unrivaled position it enjoyed for so long.

More importantly, the trend isn’t looking good. From an economic perspective, the national debt is set to increase by another $20 trillion over the next decade… likely triggering a nasty run of stagflation like the US experienced in the 1970s.

The US military, meanwhile, continues its downward slide. Recruitment is absolutely abysmal. Key weapons systems, fighter jets, tanks, and naval vessels are borderline obsolete.

The US Navy’s fleet of ships and submarines (which would be critical in any conflict against China) is the oldest and smallest it’s been since the end of World War II. Nearly 1,000 military aircraft will be retired from service in the next five years alone, and there is no concrete plan to replace them.

Nor is there any money to do so.

Frankly it is exceedingly difficult to believe that, in light of America’s declining power and prestige, the rest of the world will continue accepting the US dollar as the global reserve currency for much longer.

We’re already seeing signs of this change; plenty of countries are starting to trade with one another in different currencies, including Chinese renminbi and Indian rupee, and this trend will likely accelerate over the next several years.

I think it’s even possible there could be an event of some sort-- perhaps the US government defaults on its debt, or there’s even a shooting war or cyberattack-- which triggers a new Bretton Woods style conference.

The key difference between now and 1944 is that there was only one option back then-- the US. And pretty much everyone had confidence in America.

That’s not the case today. Few rational people have the same level of confidence in the US government. Yet almost no one trusts the Chinese either.

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But just like 1944, there is an obvious solution… and one that everyone already trusts: gold.

Nearly every country already holds gold as a reserve asset, so there would be very little change to the way they currently do business.

I’ve written about this before-- I believe this is why so many central banks around the world have been on a gold-buying spree. In fact, this is THE reason why gold is near its all-time high: central banks have been buying it by the metric ton.

You have to understand that central banks aren’t speculators. They don’t care about price. They buy for strategic reasons… and I believe that the central bank gold purchases that have been occurring over the past few years are a key sign that the global financial regime will be changing.

Individual investors, meanwhile, have been selling gold.

North American investors have sold off more than $4 billion worth of gold ETFs in the first four months of this year, with $2 billion of that just in the month of April. And gold ETF holdings are now at their lowest level in four years.

Central banks are buying. Individual investors are selling. It seems pretty clear that people aren’t paying attention to the warning signs.

Yes, gold is near its all-time high. But that doesn’t mean it can’t go much higher… especially if there’s a catalyst. And there absolutely is.

As a final point, I would point out again that even while gold is near its all-time high, shares of high quality, profitable, dividend-paying gold miners are laughably cheap.

That’s because central banks only buy physical gold bullion (which has pushed up the price of gold). They do not buy gold stocks… hence many of these businesses are available for outrageous bargains.

To your freedom,   James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/gold-will-soon-displace-the-us-dollar-and-americans-are-missing-out-151007/

Would You Pay €1 For This House?

Would You Pay €1 For This House?

Notes From the Field by James Hickman (Simon Black)  May 29, 2024

In 2007, Giuseppe Ferrarello found himself facing a monumental challenge as the newly-elected mayor of Gangi, Italy — an incredibly picturesque yet dwindling town nestled in the mountains of Sicily.

Like many rural communities across Italy and beyond, the village of Gangi was grappling with depopulation and economic decline. Once home to 15,000 people, its population by 2007 stood at just 7,000. Young people in particular were leaving to seek job opportunities in northern Italy and elsewhere in Europe, leaving behind aging parents and empty houses.

At first glance, the situation seemed hopeless. Gangi’s inland location far from the coast rendered it unattractive to tourists.

But Ferrarello refused to give up and adopted a bold strategy to revitalize his town through the “One Euro Houses program” — a pioneering initiative aimed at attracting new residents and rejuvenating abandoned properties.

Under the program, buyers could purchase local derelict houses for a symbolic price of just one euro... but with strings attached. New owners had to commit to restoring the properties within four years.

Ferrarello’s idea was successful in attracting foreign investors. And over the next few years, the little hamlet was recognized as the “Jewel of Italy,” and named one of the “The most beautiful Italian villages.”

New residents and tourists from Europe and beyond arrived, to the delight of the local businesses and artisans.

And over the following years, several towns across Italy, Spain, France, and even the UK launched their own projects offering housing at a ‘symbolic price’.

At face value it seems like a stupendous bargain to buy a house in Europe for just 1 euro. But are these offers really worth the strings attached?

Super cheap real estate deals across various EU countries exist because the properties are worthless to their current owners. These often-dilapidated homes are located in small towns far from major population centers and tourist attractions, and many have been abandoned for generations, requiring extensive renovation.

Property taxes, though modest, make these properties a burden. And buyers typically must commit to spending at least €35,000 to renovate the property within two to three years.

If you fail to meet these obligations, you risk losing a €1,000 to €5,000 insurance deposit held by the municipality, losing the property, or both.

Other costs include €1,500 in legal fees, and roughly €3,500 for mandatory civil engineering and architectural plans.

There’s also no guarantee that €35,000 will be enough to complete renovations; many of these properties are “historic,” meaning you can’t do whatever you want. Plenty of local regulations will govern what you can and cannot do.

Therefore, renovating a small, 100 square meter (1,076 sq.ft.) home can cost between €60,000 and €160,000 to bring it to a livable and rentable condition.

Engaging in such a project could certainly benefit adventurous souls with ample free time.

But there are other challenges as well. You either need to speak Italian and be prepared for the complexities of southern European bureaucracy, or you’ll have to spend even more money on project managers.

Even if you persevere through the purchase and renovation process, consider the most probable outcome — an illiquid property in a tiny village lacking appeal to both Italians and foreigners alike. Because most of these towns aren’t as successful as Gangi at reigniting their tiny economies.

But if owning a beautiful home in Italy is your goal (and part of your Plan B), it probably makes more sense to just look at the wide selection of regular cheap properties available throughout the country.

After all, owning an Italian home does offer the allure of breathtaking scenery, cultural richness, relaxation, outdoor activities, and even an investment potential… all in one picturesque package.

Even for as low as €60,000 to €160,000, you can find a nice Italian property with no strings attached — no hunting for reliable information, no applying for remodeling and construction permits, no actual renovation, and no time wasted.

Properties almost anywhere in Italy remain remarkably cheap, as the country has, so far, missed the real estate boom experienced by its European neighbors.

As of March 2024, the average Italian property price per square meter stood at €1,850, just 6.6% higher than the nationwide low recorded in February 2020.

Property prices in Spain average €2,098 per sq.m., and €2,596 in Portugal.

And 22 provinces (out of 106) across Italy have current province-wide prices below €1,000 per square meter. That’s definitely cheap.

For example, in Gangi, the original “€1 house” village, this 151 sq.m., 3-story house in the town center offers great views, is in livable condition, and is selling for just €35,000.

(Personally, I’d rather pay 35k for the finished home than have paid 1 euro and gone through all the time, money, and work to renovate it.)

And it’s not just the cheaper southern Italy that has these deals.

Genoa — a famous port city just south of Milan, and the birthplace of Christopher Columbus — is still 47% below its 2012 peak, with plenty of options below €1,000 per square meter.

Biella — less than 90 minutes from Milan and situated right at the foot of the Alps, next to lakes, mountains, and ski resorts — offers this spacious and modern 250 sq.m. apartment located right in the town’s historic area, selling for €155,000 — a very inexpensive €620 per square meter

Now, believe it or not, this article isn’t really about buying property in Italy. To some people, Italy may be their idyllic retirement dream. Others couldn’t care less. The larger issue is how to think about a “Plan B”.

Remember, the central idea behind a Plan B is to mitigate risks by taking sensible actions — actions which make sense regardless of what happens (or doesn’t happen) in the future.

For a lot of people, a big part of their Plan B is having a second property overseas. A second home abroad, combined with residency or citizenship, is sort of like an insurance policy: you might not ever need it… but in case you ever do, you’ll be damn glad you have one.

A second residence means that you’ll always have a place to go in case, for whatever reason, you need to leave your home country. This could be enormously valuable to you and your family.

But even if that day never comes (and hopefully it doesn’t), it’s hard to imagine you’ll be worse off for owning a nice property in a place where you really enjoy spending time-- which you were able to purchase on the cheap and generate modest cashflow while you’re not using it.

For some people, Italy ticks that box. For others, it doesn’t. And for others, buying a second home isn’t the right move either. Everyone has unique, individual circumstances.

The key idea is that we can apply this same logic to other elements of a Plan B, including our finances.

For example, we have long argued why inflation will grow and become a major problem for the US dollar in the coming years; it will be extremely difficult to take on $20+ trillion in new debt in the next decade without serious, serious inflation.

Real assets are a major inflation hedge. And right now, many real assets-- including key commodities and the companies which produce them — are historically cheap.

We’re talking about high quality gold or copper miners that generate fantastic profits, have virtually zero debt, and pay 8%+ dividends… yet their shares trade at laughably low valuations.

If our inflation thesis plays out as expected, these types of companies will do extremely well, and shareholders could be richly rewarded.

But even if inflation never materializes (which is highly doubtful), it still makes sense to consider owning a strong, profitable business that pays a great dividend.

James Hickman Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/would-you-pay-e1-for-this-house-150891/

Where The Price Of Oil Is Just $15/Barrel

Where The Price Of Oil Is Just $15/Barrel

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) Tues May 28 2024

In the year 1712, an English ironworker and part-time Baptist preacher named Thomas Newcomen finally put the finishing touches on a new invention that had been more than a century in the making.

Newcomen called it the ‘atmospheric engine’, and it was essentially a very crude, rudimentary steam engine that he used to pump water.

The idea had existed since the early 1600s, and a number of inventors had attempted to create something similar. But Newcomen was the first to develop a functioning engine, and his key breakthrough was including a fuel source (wood) to heat up water and create steam.

It’s remarkable that, even to this day, most automobile engines, generators, and electrical power plants still rely on Newcomen’s basic concept: burn a fuel to create heat, then harness that heat energy to generate motion and mechanical work.

Obviously, the design has been much improved since then; James Watt perfected Newcomen’s invention decades later with the first commercially viable steam engines (which ultimately kicked off the Industrial Revolution).

Inventors also discovered far more efficient fuel sources.

Coal, for example, was found to have more than twice as much heat energy per pound than wood… which is a key reason why coal became the most important commodity of the 1800s. But other commodities like oil and gas were later discovered to be even more fuel efficient than coal.

Today all three are still used in vast quantities. In fact, coal-fired power plants still produce over 2,300 gigawatts of electricity worldwide, which constitutes about 30% of global electricity production capacity.

Natural gas is also responsible for nearly 2,000 gigawatts (in addition to its widespread use in heating). And oil is clearly the most dominant fuel source for internal combustion engines which power global transportation.

Now, at the end of the day, all three commodities serve essentially the same purpose, i.e. they are fuel sources whose heat energy is harnessed to perform work. And because of this, their heat energy should be priced more or less the same.

For example, a barrel of oil contains the equivalent of 5.6 million British Thermal Units (BTUs) of heat energy. So, at a price of roughly $80 per barrel of oil, this is the equivalent of about $14.28 per million BTUs of heat energy.

Oil prices do vary from place to place. But the differences are fairly minor; the West Texas Intermediate price (used primarily in the US) is slightly lower than the Brent oil price (used primarily in the North Sea), but they are within a few percent of each other.

But natural gas is a totally different story.

In Europe, for example, natural gas prices are significantly higher than they are in the US and currently trade for roughly $9.12 per million BTUs. And only a few months ago, natural gas prices in Europe were nearly $14 per million BTUs, i.e. almost equivalent to oil price when measured in dollars (or euros) per million BTUs.

But natural gas prices in the US are dramatically lower than they are in Europe… and it’s easy to understand why: the US has some of the biggest natural gas reserves in the world, while Europe has almost nothing by comparison. (This is why Europe is so reliant on Russian gas).

And since Joe Biden has banned the exporting of LNG (liquefied natural gas) from the US, there’s basically nowhere for all that excess US natural gas to go.

This is why prices in the US are less than $3, versus more than $9 in Europe. If US producers were free to export, prices in the US would rise, prices in Europe would fall, the global natural gas prices would be more or less the same, just like global oil prices.

But, at least for now, LNG exports are banned… and that keeps prices incredibly cheap in the US. How cheap exactly?

Well remember that $80 oil is the equivalent of $14.28 per million BTUs of heat energy. US natural gas prices are $2.77 per million BTUs of heat energy. So, based on the price per million BTUs, natural gas is about 80% cheaper than oil in the United States.

Another way to say it is that US natural gas is priced at the equivalent of $15 for a barrel of oil… which makes US natural gas the most underpriced conventional energy commodity in the world.

Now, I say “conventional” because there is another option that blows natural gas away-- and that’s nuclear.

The energy released in a nuclear reaction from just a single cubic foot of uranium is literally FIFTY BILLION times greater than the energy released from burning an equivalent amount of natural gas. So, nuclear is, by far, the cheapest and most efficient energy… which is why China, India, Russia, etc. are all feverishly building nuclear power plants.

The West, by comparison, is shutting their nuclear plants down. It is the dumbest policy imaginable.

So, at least for now, natural gas is America’s cheapest energy source. But it probably won’t stay that way for long.

First, large tech companies, which are building massive, energy-hungry AI data centers, are also looking at putting in their own power plants… which will most likely be powered by natural gas.

This increased demand will certainly have a big impact on price.

The second catalyst is that the export ban probably won’t last. There are lawsuits, legislation, and an upcoming election, any one of which could reverse the ban and start up LNG exports once again. When this happens, US natural gas prices could quickly rise

In either case, natural gas producers stand to benefit substantially from higher prices. And it just so happens that shares of many of the best quality producers right now are laughably cheap, with low multiples relative to earnings, book value, and Free Cash Flow.

We’ll talk about this more in the future, but our core view is that it makes a lot of sense to own ‘real assets’, i.e. scarce, high quality, productive assets that the world truly needs (and cannot be conjured out of thin air by central banks.)

Energy commodities like natural gas, and their highest quality producers, definitely fit that description, with the added benefit that they’re dirt cheap right now.

To your freedom,   James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

P.S. If you’re interested in more analysis on this theme, including our best research on some of the most deeply undervalued real asset producers in the world, consider giving The 4th Pillar, our real-asset focused investment newsletter, a try.

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/where-the-price-of-oil-is-just-15-barrel-150883/

Civil War… Really?

Civil War… Really?

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  May 20, 2024

On July 12, 1648, dozens of angry French politicians gathered at the hallowed Palais de Justice in Paris to draft the final ultimatum that would be sent to their nine-year-old king, Louis XIV.

The politicians were all members of France’s national parliament, and, like most modern politicians, they were almost all lawyers who lived extremely privileged lives at the expense of French taxpayers.

In France, most aristocrats historically came from a group known as the noblesse d'épée, essentially Knights of the Sword. They were warriors who had fought valiantly and had won their power for their dedicated service to France.

This new class of politicians, however, came from a different group known as the noblesse de robe. They had never fought or bled for France, and rather had spent their lives in academia and law school without any understanding of the real world.

And while they claimed that their political crusade was all about ‘the people’, it was obvious that they just wanted more power for themselves.

France was just coming out of the Thirty Years’ War. The King was just a boy. The chief minister-- Jules Mazarin-- was extremely unpopular. So, these politicians saw an opportunity to take power.

They relied on their friends in the media to create divisions in French society-- Catholics versus Huguenots, peasants versus merchants-- and before long there was talk of civil war. And it didn’t exactly go as planned.

On August 27, a few weeks after submitting their ultimatum, roughly 160 politicians marched to the royal palace. They were joined by a small crowd of peasants who were dumb enough to believe that these nobles actually cared about commoners’ problems.

The royal court initially decided to placate and respect the crowd, so Louis’ mother took him outside of the city for a while. The politicians and their peasant followers immediately declared victory and turned Paris into a sort of ‘autonomous zone’.

But as months went by and nothing really improved, many of the peasants began to realize that they were just pawns in the noble’s attempt to seize power and turn France into an even worse feudalist state.

Eventually the boy king returned-- this time with his army. And suddenly the rebel nobles realized that their civil war was about to get real. Trained, professional fighters were about to march through Paris and vanquish all the sissy elites who had never fought a day in their lives.

Sure, the elites knew how to write angry letters. They knew how to use the media to stoke divisions and call their opponents all sorts of horrible names. They knew how to talk tough. And if they were alive today, they’d probably be really great at making TikTok videos.

But they were ultimately a bunch of cowards who weren’t even willing to get a bloody nose for their so-called beliefs. And France’s ‘civil war’ was over in no time.

This is one of the great lessons from history: it’s easy to pretend that you stand for something when the cost for doing so is absolutely nothing. You only find out what people truly believe when their own blood and livelihood is on the line.

In our modern era, we have equally incompetent, idiotic, wimpy politicians who are devoid of backbone. They have no clue how the real-world works, and they live a life of lavish status courtesy of the taxpayer.

They, too, have stoked division and animosity among the population. People used to be able to disagree with one another civilly. Now countless fanatics viscerally hate the other side and call for large groups of people, whether ‘billionaires’ or ‘Trump Supporters’ or ‘oil execs’, etc. to be lined up against the wall and shot.

There is no rational discourse anymore, only shouting matches, angry Twitter feuds, and ‘mostly peaceful’ protests. The takeover of so many college campuses across the Land of the Free is a testament to how far civil discourse has fallen.

It’s so bad that a number of polls suggest up to 43% of Americans think another civil war is coming within a decade. Even Ray Dalio-- billionaire founder of the world’s largest hedge fund-- recently said the same thing in an interview with the Financial Times last week. Some politicians and vocal social media personalities have also called for a ‘national breakup’.

Given that there’s even a Hollywood production out in the theaters right now literally called Civil War about a future breakdown of the US, we thought it was time to weigh in with a dose of reality.

Let’s be honest: an actual “war”, i.e. shooting, violence against violence, etc. isn’t going to happen.

Just like the French civil war in the mid-1600s, the majority of the hyper-angry progressive rebels in America today are elitist cowards. One need only take a look at the people who have taken over the universities: they’re idiot kids, not terrifying holy warriors.

Sure, it’s easy to look tough and storm an administrative building when your spineless university president tacitly (or explicitly) supports your cause.

But the second there’s any real violence, i.e. someone who fights back, they’ll all run away in an instant. They can’t even take a bloody nose.

To Read More:

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/civil-war-really-150863/

Why The Dollar Will Lose Its Status As The Global Reserve Currency

Why The Dollar Will Lose Its Status As The Global Reserve Currency

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  May 13, 2024

By the early 400s, the Roman Empire was coming apart at the seams and in desperate need of strong, competent leadership. In theory, Honorius should have been the right man for the job.

Born into the royal household in Constantinople, Honorius had been groomed to rule, practically since birth, by the finest experts in the realm. So even as a young man, Honorius had already accumulated decades of experience.

Yet Rome’s foreign adversaries rightfully believed Honorius to be weak, out of touch, divisive, and completely inept.

He had entered into bonehead peace treaties that strengthened Rome’s enemies. He paid vast sums of money to some of their most powerful rivals and received practically nothing in return. He made virtually no attempt to secure Roman borders, leaving the empire open to be ravaged by barbarians.

Inflation was high. Taxes were high. Economic production declined. Roman military power declined. And all of Rome’s foreign adversaries were emboldened.

To a casual observer it would have almost seemed as if Honorius went out of his way to make the Empire weaker.

One of Rome’s biggest threats came in the year 408, when the barbarian king Alaric invaded Italy; imperial defenses were so non-existent at that point that ancient historians described Alaric’s march towards Rome as unopposed and leisurely, as if they were “at some festival” rather than an invasion.

Alaric and his army arrived to the city of Rome in the autumn of 408 AD and immediately positioned their forces to cut off any supplies. No food could enter the city, and before long, its residents began to starve.

Historians have passed down horrific stories of cannibalism-- including women eating their own children in order to survive.

Rather than send troops and fight, however, Honorius agreed to pay a massive ransom to Alaric, including 5,000 pounds of gold, 30,000 pounds of silver, and literally tons of other real assets and commodities.

(The equivalent in today’s money, adjusted for population, would be billions of dollars… similar to what the US released to Iran in a prisoner swap last year.)

Naturally, Honorius didn’t have such a vast sum in his treasury… so Romans were forced to strip down and melt their shrines and statues in order to pay Alaric’s ransom.

Ironically, one of the statues they melted was a monument to Virtus, the Roman god of bravery and strength… leading the ancient historian Zosimus to conclude that “all which remained of Roman valor and intrepidity was totally extinguished.”

Rome had spent two centuries in the early days of the empire-- from the rise of Augustus in 27 BC to the death of Marcus Aurelius in 180 AD-- as the clear, unrivaled superpower. Almost no one dared mess with Rome, and few who did ever lived to tell the tale.

Modern scholars typically view the official “fall” of the Western Roman Empire in the year 476. But it’s pretty clear that the collapse of Roman power and prestige took place decades before.

When Rome was ransomed in 408 (then sacked in 410), it was obvious to everyone at the time that the Emperor no longer had a grip on power.

And before long, most of the lands in the West that Rome had once dominated-- Italy, Spain, France, Britain, North Africa, etc. were under control of various Barbarian tribes and kingdoms.

The Visigoths, Ostrogoths, Vandals, Franks, Angles, Saxons, Burgundians, Berbers, etc. all established independent kingdoms. And for a while, there was no dominant superpower in western Europe. It was a multi-polar world. And the transition was rather abrupt.

This is what I think is happening now-- we’re experiencing a similar transition, and it seems equally abrupt.

The United States has been the world’s dominant superpower for decades. But like Rome in the later stage of its empire, the US is clearly in decline. This should not be a controversial statement.

Let’s not be dramatic; it’s important to stay focused on facts and reality. The US economy is still vast and potent, and the country is blessed with an abundance of natural resources-- incredibly fertile farmland, some of the world’s largest freshwater resources, and incalculable reserves of energy and other key commodities.

In fact, it’s amazing the people in charge have managed to screw it up so badly. And yet they have.

The national debt is out of control, rising by trillions of dollars each year. Debt growth, in fact, substantially outpaces US economic growth.

Social Security is insolvent, and the program’s own trustees (including the US Treasury Secretary) admit that its major trust fund will run out of money in just nine years.

The people in charge never seem to miss an opportunity to dismantle capitalism (i.e. the economic system that created so much prosperity to begin with) brick by brick.

Then there are ubiquitous social crises: public prosecutors who refuse to enforce the law; the weaponization of the justice system; the southern border fiasco; declining birth rates; extraordinary social divisions that are most recently evidenced by the anti-Israel protests.

And most of all the US constantly shows off its incredibly dysfunctional government that can’t manage to agree on anything, from the budget to the debt ceiling. The President has obvious cognitive disabilities and makes the most bizarre decisions to enrich America’s enemies.

Are these problems fixable? Yes. Will they be fixed? Maybe. But as we used to say in the military, “hope is not a course of action”.

Plotting this current trajectory to its natural conclusion leads me to believe that the world will enter a new “barbarian kingdom” paradigm in which there is no dominant superpower.

Certainly, there are a number of rising rivals today. But no one is powerful enough to assume the leading role in the world.

China has a massive population and a huge economy. But it too has way too many problems… with the obvious challenge that no one trusts the Communist Party. So, most likely China will not be the dominant superpower.

India’s economy will eventually surpass China’s, and it has an even bigger population. But India isn’t even close to the ballpark of being the world’s superpower.

Then there’s Europe. Combined, it still has a massive economic and trade union. But it has also been in major decline… with multiple social crises like low birth rates and a migrant invasion.

Then there are the energy powers like Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia; they are far too small to dominate the world, but they have the power to menace and disrupt it.

The bottom line is that the US is no longer strong enough to lead the world and keep adversarial nations in check. And it’s clear that other countries are already adapting to this reality.

Earlier this month, for example, China successfully launched a rocket to the moon as part of a multi-decade mission to establish an International Lunar Research Station.

By 2045, China hopes to construct a large, city-like base along with several international partners including Russia, Pakistan, Thailand, South Africa, Venezuela, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Egypt. Turkey and Nicaragua are also interested in joining.

This is pretty remarkable given how many nations are participating, even if just nominally. Yet the US isn’t part of the consortium.

This would have been unthinkable a few decades ago. But today the rest of the world realizes that they no longer need American funding, leadership, or expertise.

e can see similar examples everywhere, most notably in Israel and Ukraine. And I believe one of the next shoes to drop will be the US dollar.

After all, if the rest of the world doesn’t need the US for space exploration, and they can ignore the US when it comes down to World War 3, then why should they need the US dollar anymore?

The dollar was the clear and obvious choice as the global reserve currency back when America was the undisputed superpower. But today it’s a different world.

Foreign nations continuing to rely on the dollar ultimately means governments and central banks buying US government bonds. And why should they take such a risk when the national debt is already 120% of GDP?

In addition, Congress passed a new law a few weeks ago authorizing the Treasury Department to confiscate US dollar assets of any country it deems an “aggressor state.”

While people might think this is a morally righteous idea, the reality is that it will only turn off foreign investors. Why should China, Saudi Arabia, or anyone else buy US government bonds when they can be confiscated in a heartbeat?

All of this ultimately leads to a world in which the US dollar is no longer the dominant reserve currency. We’re already starting to see signs of that shift, and it could be in full swing by the end of the decade.

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/why-the-dollar-will-lose-its-status-as-the-global-reserve-currency-150843/

Settling the Gold Versus Crypto Debate

Settling the Gold Versus Crypto Debate

Notes From The Field by James Hickman  April 24, 2024

In 1972, while excavating to build a factory on the Black Sea coast of Bulgaria, a backhoe operator noticed gold objects glimmering in the bucket of his machine.

The construction worker had accidentally discovered the Varna Necropolis.

Dating back to around 4500 BC, the jewelry found in this ancient burial site is the earliest evidence of the use of gold by humans, and archeologists believe that they were considered a status symbol in ancient burial rituals.

Thousands of years ago, gold was likely collected from the earth’s surface in the form of nuggets or river dust.

It wasn’t until about 3500 BC, on a hilltop located in the modern-day country of Georgia, that a group of people from the prehistoric Kura-Araxes dug the oldest known gold mine.

Known as Sakdrisi-Kachagiani, the gold mine predates Ancient Egypt and even Mesopotamia.

By around 2000 BC, commercial transactions involving gold were being recorded on cuneiform tablets in modern-day Turkey. Materials like tin and textiles were traded for a particular weight of gold, because the first known gold coins weren’t minted until around the 6th Century BC.

King Croesus of Lydia in modern-day Turkey, used these coins to standardize the weight and purity of gold.

After that, gold coins were used directly in commerce for thousands of years, until the United Kingdom formally adopted the gold standard in the early 1800s. This was the first monetary system where a country’s paper money had a value directly linked to gold.

And even today, over 50 years since the US abandoned its own gold standard, central banks around the world still hold vast quantities of gold as a reserve to store value.

Individuals and large financial institutions do the same. And gold jewelry is still extremely valuable.

That’s quite a track record. For over 6,000 years, humans have valued gold.

Fifteen years ago, Bitcoin was created. And today there are countless millions of people who believe crypto has value too.

Now, gold and crypto are completely different and seldom belong in the same sentence. But for some reason there are often heated debates between proponents of each who argue bitterly over whether Gold or crypto is better.

No other asset classes attract such conflict or controversy. You don’t see passionate oil investors engaging in riotous debates with natural gas speculators. There is no heated argument over wheat vs. soybeans.

But gold and crypto are sometimes positioned as diametrically opposed, and this is just silly. Each asset has its function.

Gold has an enormous amount of value— and I have actually argued that it is still undervalued, even at its all-time high.

I’ve written extensively about the US government’s financial woes; the national debt is closing in on $35 trillion, and that figure is set to grow by $20+ trillion over the next decade according to the government’s own financial forecasts.

In addition to the new debt, the amount of debt the US government has to refinance over the next 5-7 years is staggering— literally tens of trillions of dollars. And all of it will be refinanced at a higher interest rate.

This means that interest payments on the national debt will keep growing like a malignant tumor.

In fact this year the amount of interest paid on the national debt will exceed defense spending for the first time in US history. And it will only keep rising.

Gold will most likely do very well in that scenario. But more importantly, foreign governments will likely move away from the US dollar as the global reserve currency over the next 5-10 years… and gold is the most likely asset to replace the dollar.

Central banks are already buying more gold as a reserve. And when the dollar loses its dominant global reserve status, countries are likely to turn to gold as a stable alternative that they can trust… because they already own it.

Simultaneously, crypto also has a lot of benefits. If you hold 100% of your savings in the financial system— whether at a bank, brokerage, etc., you might be surprised to find how easily it is to lose access to your funds.

Government agencies can seize your account (without due process) even by mistake. Banks can fail. They can freeze your account and force you to prove that you’re not doing anything wrong.

Plus even the most mundane bank transfers these days are heavily scrutinized. I had an exasperating conversation with a bank not long ago when I tried to send money to my sister… and they required all sorts of paperwork and justification to send my own money to my family.

Crypto is a great way to bypass that mess… to simply send money from point A to point B directly, without any middleman whatsoever.

Crypto exists digitally, so it can be moved across borders easily and at no cost. And if you know what you’re doing, you can hold it yourself, without any third party or even special security equipment… and this is an incredibly unique feature.

The idea behind a Plan B is to figure out what you want to accomplish and figure out which tools are available to help you achieve your goals.

Well, it’s a pretty smart goal to want to have protection against the declining currency of the world’s most heavily indebted nation. It’s also a reasonable goal to want to own some assets that are completely beyond the financial system.

Crypto and gold are two completely separate tools for completely separate purposes. There’s no sense in debating crypto vs. gold. To me the answer is both.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/settling-the-gold-versus-crypto-debate-150734/

The Fed’s Game Of “Make Believe” Comes To An End

The Fed’s Game Of “Make Believe” Comes To An End

Notes From The Field by James Hickman (Simon Black)  April 29, 2024

It’s barely been a year since the 2023 bank crisis in which several large banks, including Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, failed.

At the time, I wrote that the bank failures weren’t over, and that there would be more.

But it’s been quiet for most of the last year; the banking system has been pretty calm thanks in large part to an emergency program that the Federal Reserve created to bail out other troubled banks.

They called it the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), and it essentially expired a few weeks ago. In other words, no more emergency lending to troubled banks.

Barely a month later, we have already witnessed our first casualty: Pennsylvania-based Republic First (not to be confused with First Republic, which failed last year) was shut down by regulators on Friday afternoon.

Republic First had the same issues as the others that failed last year — too many ‘unrealized bond losses’ on their balance sheet.

Just like Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, etc. last year, Republic First had used their customers’ deposits to buy US Treasury bonds in 2021 and 2022, back when bond prices were at all-time highs.

By early 2023, the situation had reversed. Bond prices had plummeted; even supposedly ‘safe’ and ‘stable’ US Treasury bonds had fallen substantially in price, and banks were sitting on huge losses.

Remember that bond prices fall when interest rates rise. So when the Fed jacked up interest rates from 0% to 5% in an attempt to control inflation, they were simultaneously creating huge losses in the bond market... which also meant huge losses for banks.

Silicon Valley Bank was just the tip of the iceberg. Plenty of other banks (including Bank of America) had racked up enormous bond losses. In fact the total unrealized losses in the banking sector last year amounted to a whopping $620 billion.

The Fed knew they had an enormous problem on their hands. So they created this Bank Term Funding Program, which was basically a giant game of ‘make believe’.

Through the BTFP, banks were allowed to borrow money from the Fed using their cratering bond portfolios as collateral. But instead of valuing the bonds at the actual market price, everyone simply pretended that the bonds were still worth 100 cents on the dollar.

In other words, the banks just made up prices for their assets, and the Fed allowed them to do it.

(It’s ironic that a certain former President is on trial in New York City for inflating the value of his assets, even though banks were inflating the value of their bonds through the BTFP.)

The Fed managed to prevent any further embarrassing bank failures last year by sprinkling this magical fairy dust across the banking system.

But now that the BTFP has expired, it has become obvious that problems in the banking system haven’t gone away. Republic First’s failure a few days ago is just one symptom.

Think about it: Bond prices are still down (because interest rates remain much higher than they were in 2021-2022). Banks are still sitting on massive unrealized losses.

And now that the Fed has stopped playing ‘make believe’, the bank failures have started up again.

It’s not to say that ALL banks are in terrible shape; some banks wisely used the last twelve months to get their financial houses in order.

Unfortunately most didn’t... which is why there’s still more more than HALF A TRILLION dollars in unrealized losses in the US banking system. This means that Republic First probably won’t be the only failure, unless the Fed steps in with its magical fairy dust again.

Also bear in mind that losses from their US Treasury portfolios aren’t the only problem in the banking system; for example, plenty of banks are sitting on huge potential losses from loans they made on office properties.

I don’t think the scope of this problem is anywhere near the 2008 financial crisis, which brought down some of the world’s largest banks. Not even close.

But the reality is that there are still a lot of banks with a lot of unrealized losses. And the biggest one of all happens to be the Federal Reserve.

According to its own financial statements, just released last month, the Fed’s total unrealized losses are almost $1 TRILLION — $948.4 BILLION to be more precise. And the vast majority of those unrealized losses come from US Treasuries.

So just like Silicon Valley Bank, Signature, First Republic, and now Republic First, the Federal Reserve has rendered itself completely insolvent.

In fact, total Federal Reserve capital is just $51 billion... versus $948 billion in losses. This means the Fed is insolvent 19 times over.

Think about that: the largest, most important central bank in the world... the steward of the global reserve currency... is completely insolvent on a mark-to-market basis.

You’d think that would be front page news. But no one ever talks about it. No one even wants to talk about it.

Of course plenty of people will insist that it doesn’t matter, just like they insist that the national debt doesn’t matter.

But this is yet more absurd fantasy; just look at the facts:

The FDIC’s published reports show more than $500 billion in unrealized losses in the US banking sector.

The Federal Reserve, which in theory would bail out the banking sector, is itself insolvent by $900 billion.

The US government, which would bail out the Fed, is insolvent by more than $50 trillion.

It’s just debt on top of debt on top of debt. Losses on top of losses on top of losses.

Just like the BTFP, everyone wants to play a giant game of ‘make believe’ and pretend that the Fed’s solvency is not a problem, that the US government’s enormous debt is not a problem.

On the contrary, they’re huge challenges. And the ultimate consequence is going to be the loss of the US dollar as the global reserve currency.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/the-feds-game-of-make-believe-comes-to-an-end-150768/

America’s Biggest Bank Sounds the Alarm Bell

America’s Biggest Bank Sounds the Alarm Bell

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) April 8, 2024

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase, did not open his annual shareholder letter with rosy language about the state of the world, or even enthusiasm about his bank’s record profits.

Instead, he describes “yet another year of significant challenges” including the war in Ukraine, war in the Middle East, extreme tensions with China, higher food and energy prices, turmoil in the banking sector, outrageous government deficits, and even major risks with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Dimon writes that “America’s global leadership role is being challenged outside by other nations and inside by our polarized electorate,” and that this is a “time of great crises”.

He went on with a few charts and thoughts about the bank’s business and financial performance over the last year… and then dedicated most of the remaining 57 pages of his letter to the serious problems which face the world.

His observations are wide-reaching-- from the decay of social cohesion to the prospect of war and higher inflation, to the serious potential for a reset of the Bretton Woods system (which made the US dollar the world’s reserve currency).

Frankly the letter almost reads as a manifesto written by someone who is completely fed up with government incompetence and positioning himself to run for office. I can’t agree with everything he says, but it’s obvious that his ideas are balanced and well thought out.

There are a few points in particular worth repeating.

1. Keep it in perspective; the world is not coming to an end

“If you read the newspaper from virtually any day of any year since World War II,” Dimon writes, “there is abundant coverage on wars — hot and cold — inflation, recession, polarized politics, terrorist attacks, migration and starvation. As appalling as these events have been, the world was generally on a path to becoming stronger and safer.”

This is absolutely a true statement. It’s easy to get caught up in the negativity while missing the abundance of growth and opportunity.

In the year 1918, most people probably thought that the world was coming to an end. The Great War was at its peak, economies were faltering, inflation was surging, rationing and shortages were everywhere… and then the Spanish flu popped up and killed tens of millions of people.

Bleak times indeed. And yet the next century was the most prosperous in human history… despite a very bumpy path along the way.

This is similar to where we are today. Yes, Inspired Idiots have caused a gigantic mess. But the general trajectory of the human species is still improving.

2. That said, long-term risks should not be underestimated. Especially for the West.

Dimon finds that there is “too much emphasis on short-term, monthly data and too little on long-term trends”, and he talks about inflation as a great example.

Economists and investors tend to be almost singularly focused on monthly inflation reports in an effort to divine if and when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.

They’re entirely missing the point, Dimon writes. Month by month, and even year by year, inflation numbers could vary wildly. But if you look at the big picture, you’ll see substantial evidence for future inflation.

We’ve been writing about this for a long time. In fact, since inception we’ve only been focused on long-term trends… and we see these as highly inflationary.

Similar to our view, Dimon understands how “ongoing fiscal [deficit] spending, remilitarization of the world, restructuring of global trade, capital needs of the new green economy, and possibly higher energy costs in the future” are all inflationary in the long run.

The inflation might not show up next month or next quarter, but he believes (as do we) that the coming years are full of “persistent inflationary pressures”.

There are also significant risks to the current US-led global order; America’s influence is waning, and Dimon writes that the “international rules-based order established by the Western world after World War II is clearly under attack by outside forces, somewhat weakened by its own failures [and] confusing and overlapping regime of policies.”

As part of this, he talks about the distinct possibility for a reset of the post-WW2 financial system (known as Bretton Woods) that anointed the US dollar as the global reserve currency. He puts it succinctly: “we may need a new Bretton Woods.”

We’ve been writing about this for years; the dollar’s decline is a long-term trend, but for us, it’s an obvious one. You cannot run multi-trillion-dollar deficits each year and still expect to be the world’s economic superpower.

It’s notable that even someone like Dimon can see this coming.

3. These problems are still solvable.

We’ve written extensively that the problems facing the US and the West are still solvable. For now. But every year that the problems continue to be ignored brings the country closer to a point of no return... where there is no way out but default.

Dimon is not shy about offering up suggestions, many of which we have written about in the past. He talks about border security, streamlining sensible regulations, and economic policies which prioritize growth.

“Unfortunately,” Dimon writes, “the message America hears is that the federal government does not value business — that business is the problem and not part of the solution.”

“There are fewer individuals in government who have any significant experience in starting or running a company, which is apparent every day in the political rhetoric that demonizes businesses and free enterprise and that damages confidence in America’s institutions.”

He says he finds it “astounding that many in Congress know what to do and want to do it but are simply unable to pass legislation because of partisan politics”.

He goes on to list a multitude of government failures and the “staggering number of policies, systems, and operations that are underperforming”, including pitiful public schools, broken healthcare, infrastructure woes (especially the energy grid), terrible immigration policy, Social Security’s looming insolvency, and more.

Dimon states very clearly that the federal government “needs to earn back trust through competence and effective policymaking.”

True statement. But I’m not holding my breath. Because in related news, the White House just announced that Joe Biden is working on yet another way to forgive student debt for 30 million Americans.

He doesn’t seem to care that the Supreme Court already rejected his previous effort to forgive student debt, saying he did not have the legal authority.

It’s pathetic that the cost of university education is so high… especially given how many degrees in an AI-world are useless. Plus many universities these days are just hotbeds of radicalization. It hardly seems worth taking on $80,000 of debt for such a dubious outcome.

But nevertheless, taxpayers have footed the bill for college and loaned out over $1 trillion to students across the country.

This is a basic tenet of capitalism (which Mr. Biden claims to embrace): debts have to be paid.

But because this guy’s poll numbers are so pathetic-- especially with young people-- he’s trying to score points by canceling their debts.

Well, canceling student debt means that taxpayers will lose hundreds of billions in loans that they made. So rather than taking steps to strengthen America’s balance sheet, the President is once again violating the law to make the balance sheet worse… all to improve his image among young voters.

This is hardly a way to restore trust in government. So again, I’m not holding my breath.

Dimon’s letter is worth the read if you have the time. You might not agree with everything he says, but it is rather telling that the CEO of the country’s largest bank is speaking so plainly about obvious risks.

It’s another reminder of why it makes so much sense to have a Plan B.

To your freedom,

James Hickman (Simon Black)  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/americas-biggest-bank-sounds-the-alarm-bell-150673/